The pattern of real estate supply will change next year. Will the inflection point of housing prices become a hot spot？
The latest issue of China News Network News? Wang Newsweek reported that the rising house prices in 2007 finally faltered towards the end of the year: Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai and other cities with soaring house prices began to see different degrees of decline in transaction volume, and the discussion about whether the house prices have turned an inflection point under a series of macro-control began to be lively.
The article writes that the real estate market in 2008 will face two major problems: First, since the housing system reform in 1998, the real estate market in China has experienced an upward trend for nearly ten years. Under the accumulation of years of regulatory policies, will 2008 be the turning point of adjustment?
Secondly, regarding how to solve the real estate problem in China, Premier Wen said in a speech in Singapore that under the premise of strictly observing the "red line" of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land, three ways should be adopted to expand supply: low-rent housing, affordable housing and market regulation. Some media interpret this policy as "it is possible to free most urban residents from high housing prices". The Ministry of Construction, the competent department, has also said that in the next three years, the investment in low-rent housing and affordable housing will double. If so, it will completely change the current supply pattern of the real estate market.
According to the article, from a realistic point of view, it is far from enough to change the supply pattern of the real estate market in the near future in terms of affordable housing with the current investment quota accounting for less than 5% of the total investment in residential and commercial housing. It is a necessary condition to make clear the details of the actual operation of low-rent housing and affordable housing, such as the source of funds, supply methods and supply targets, to ensure that the limited funds of the country are used in the cutting edge. Therefore, Bao Zonghua, executive vice president of China Real Estate and Housing Research Association, believes that the construction and improvement of the housing system will be the theme in 2008.
Judging from the current situation in China, on the one hand, the national income level is not up to the level that most people can realize market-oriented housing purchase; On the other hand, it is impossible for the financial resources of the government to meet the desire of all housing difficulties groups to realize government security in a short period of time. Therefore, for the future housing system in China, experts believe that it will be composed of three parts, that is, some people will completely solve the housing problem by the government, some will solve it by market means, and the middle part will be combined with market and government subsidies, thus covering all the people in China’s housing system and security system.
Bao Zonghua pointed out that at present, it has reached a consensus that housing security is the responsibility of the government, and the key is how to do it. In his view, at this stage, we should focus on the middle, low and lowest income people and expand the coverage of low-rent housing, affordable housing and other affordable housing. At the same time, the government should strictly control its Taoxing, housing prices and supply targets.
First, vigorously develop low-rent housing. The proportion of low-rent housing in housing stock in the world generally does not exceed 5%. However, China’s current situation is far below this ratio, so in 2008, China will accelerate the pace of improving the low-rent housing system.
The second is to vigorously build affordable housing. Starting from 2008, the government should strive to increase the supply of low-priced and medium-sized ordinary commodity housing.
Third, high-grade housing adopts market regulation. The high-grade housing market will mainly rely on market regulation, but we must proceed from China’s national conditions of large population and small land and insufficient economic strength, vigorously curb the excessive expansion of housing investment demand, and rationally regulate the proportion of large-scale high-priced housing construction. Bao Zonghua suggested charging high land transfer fee, high real estate development tax and high property tax for the construction and purchase of large-sized high-priced housing in the future, and "increasing" tax on the sale and purchase of second homes. By collecting "high" property tax, it not only increases government revenue, but also inhibits investment demand, reduces the proportion of large-sized high-priced housing construction, and finally realizes the stability of housing prices.
Editor: Liu Li