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　　As a leading enterprise in China’s real estate industry, Wang Shi, chairman of Vanke Group, is still at the cusp of fierce controversy, and Pan Shiyi, president of SOHO China, recently declared that many real estate companies in China will have drastic changes within 100 days and enter an unprecedented financing difficult period.

　　Once the viewpoint of "Hundred Days Drama Change" was thrown out, it immediately aroused unprecedented repercussions. What kind of tomorrow will China real estate industry face? Will housing prices fall in the "drastic changes" predicted by Pan Shiyi? How many housing enterprises will "die" in this cold?

　　On March 25th, when Pan Shiyi attended the Sina Real Estate Innovation Summit, he accepted an exclusive interview with the reporter of China Times to explain in detail the "Hundred Days Drama Change" released by him.

　　The sudden change of the situation leads to "a hundred-day drama change"

　　China Times: Why do you put forward the view that the real estate industry will face a "hundred-day drama change" at this juncture?

　　Pan Shiyi: At the end of November last year, the central government put forward a tight monetary policy, but the formulation at that time was still relatively general, and the international situation was still unclear at that time, and China’s monetary policy still had operational flexibility.

　　But this year, especially since February, the CPI has increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the inflationary pressure is enormous. When answering a reporter’s question, Premier Wen Jiabao said that the first thing for the government this year is to control the CPI index to around 4.8% and GDP growth to 8%. To control inflation, we must implement a tight monetary policy.

　　The day after the Prime Minister made these remarks, the reserve ratio of the central bank was raised to 15.5%, which is already very high. At this time, the domestic situation has become clear, and the tight monetary policy is very clear.

　　Let’s take a look at the international environment. In the past two months, there have been some events and current situations, such as the Bear Stearns incident and the stock market crash, including the stock crash of overseas listed real estate companies, the failure of real estate enterprises to issue bonds and shares. There are more than 40 real estate enterprises that want to list this year.

　　However, led by Evergrande Real Estate, its IPO has been shelved. At this juncture, any IPO will go wrong. This is a landmark event, and the pipeline between the international capital market and China real estate is basically blocked.

　　China Times: Last year, you were still refuting Wang Shi’s "inflection point theory", and now you are proposing "a hundred-day drama change". Is it inconsistent?

　　Pan Shiyi: Up to now, my point of view has changed, because the situation changes every day, and I am constantly revising my point of view as the situation changes.

　　Last year, when I talked to Wang Shi about the inflection point, I listed the data to refute him. At that time, I didn’t expect the American economy to be so bad. I didn’t expect Bear Stearns to have an accident. I didn’t expect the subprime mortgage crisis to be endless. I didn’t expect the CPI index to rise to 8.7%.

　　Including the current point of view, I am not necessarily right. The real estate industry is 200 billion yuan a year. The domestic and international situation of such a big industry and market has changed too fast.

　　Diwang developers will be greatly adjusted.

　　China Times: Which real estate enterprises do you think will face the most severe challenges in this upcoming great change? Is it possible for small and medium-sized real estate enterprises in China to be integrated?

　　Pan Shiyi: The year before last, especially last year, many developers were irrational and bought many landlords. However, the real estate industry cannot do without the support of the financial industry and the capital market. If this support is disconnected or weakened, the real estate industry will face great adjustments. And the first to be adjusted are those real estate enterprises that expanded extremely last year and the year before, and they will face the biggest problem.

　　Some people say that I want to merge small and medium-sized enterprises, which is a wrong misinterpretation of my point of view. Some small and medium-sized real estate enterprises in China have not expanded, and the capital chain has been well arranged. When the winter comes, they will naturally not encounter problems. On the contrary, it is the developers who have expanded extremely in previous years who are most prone to problems.

　　China Times: Do you think that the real upheaval is those Diwang enterprises that emerged last year?

　　Pan Shiyi: It is an indisputable fact that the financial situation at home and abroad is tense, which leads to the lack of money in the real estate industry. But even for Diwang enterprises, every situation is different. There are pains, only you know.

　　Buying a house can resist inflation.

　　China Times: Do you think the house price will drop because of the "100-day drama change"?

　　Pan Shiyi: When it comes to "dramatic changes in a hundred days", this is a general concept, maybe two months, maybe four months. Speaking of this view, people are most concerned about the problem of housing prices, that is, the impact of drastic changes on housing prices-is it rising or falling? But we can’t look at the price for the sake of the price. Behind the price is the relationship between supply and demand.

　　We need to see if it has an impact on demand, and the control of mortgage loans will definitely have an impact on demand; Whether it has an impact on supply, if you have land, you can’t build a house without money, and supply also has an impact; Whether house prices are rising or falling depends on which is more affected, demand and supply, and whether the state of supply and demand can still be in a balanced state.

　　China Times: When developers encounter drastic changes, will they withdraw funds by reducing prices?

　　Pan Shiyi: Price reduction is not only a problem in the land market, but also a problem in the real estate market. From the perspective of the real estate market, in January and February this year, because of the turning point, the cold weather and weak demand, the transaction volume was falling, but from the end of February to March, the sales volume increased greatly, which proved that the demand was still strong.

　　Under this demand, developers will not reduce prices, but also see whether inflation can be controlled. If it can’t be controlled, I suggest that everyone should buy a house quickly. Only by buying a house can we resist inflation. This is a particularly simple truth. I think we should buy something valuable, and the house is the most valuable and valuable.

　　It will only develop in Beijing’s Third Ring Road.

　　China Times: How do you think real estate enterprises should cope with the coming challenges?

　　Pan Shiyi: For some enterprises that are short of money, when winter comes, they will either find a hole to drill down like frogs or fly away like migratory birds. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and China’s tight monetary policy are the signs of winter. At this time, we should adopt a strategy, transfer the land we have in hand, and exchange the projects in our hands for money to save our lives.

　　China Times: In this drastic change, will SOHO China use its 15 billion yuan to make a series of acquisitions?

　　Pan Shiyi: We still focus on acquiring land, not real estate companies. Because the management style and business model of other real estate companies are different from ours, it is difficult to integrate.

　　China Times: Where will your 15 billion cash be spent? Qianmen project?

　　Pan Shiyi: With the coming of winter, our cash of 15 billion yuan is not abundant, so we should do some projects with high profit rate, high return rate and good market foundation.

　　In November and December last year and January this year, we talked about some land projects in seven or eight cities across the country. In February, when winter came, we all withdrew to Beijing.

　　With 15 billion cash and 500 employees, according to our strategy, we should spend our limited resources on ideas. Where is the point? Just within the Third Ring Road in Beijing, Qianmen Project is one of them.

Editor: Zhang Toya