Original crossbow u replies to global doctors’ organization

Pay attention to the latest research progress of avian influenza epidemic

Recently, a case of human infection caused by avian influenza occurred in Texas, USA, involving a dairy worker. This is the second human case of avian influenza reported in the United States. At present, the patient’s condition is mild and has recovered.

At present, there is no evidence that avian influenza virus has spread from person to person, but infection has been found in 32 dairy cows in at least 8 States. Therefore, scientists and food safety experts are worried that the discovery of avian influenza in dairy cows is likely to affect the spread and spread among dairy cows.

Avian influenza virus experts have noticed that compared with birds, the discovery of avian influenza virus in poultry and mammals is a new phenomenon, which means the variability of the virus.

According to the current report, in addition to birds, many mammals, such as minks, skunks and raccoons, have also reported cases of bird flu.

Experts speculate that it may be accidental, that is, mammals may be infected by eating dead birds or touching bird droppings, but the virus does not spread between their groups.

Scientists believe that vaccination is an effective means to prevent and control avian influenza in poultry, but for large mammals such as cows, the vaccine effect is limited.

At present, scientists are speeding up the research on genetically engineered animals that can resist avian influenza virus and developing more effective vaccines to deal with the potential avian influenza virus pandemic.

In a word, through the experience and lessons of COVID-19 epidemic, active prevention is the key to prevent and control this potential global health threat.

According to the official report of CDC, the symptoms of avian influenza virus infection in humans are not specific, ranging from mild eye infection to severe respiratory symptoms, and also include common symptoms such as fever, cough, sore throat and dyspnea. Severe cases may require hospitalization.

In order to accurately diagnose and identify whether the patient is infected with avian influenza virus, it should be suggested to collect samples from the patient’s respiratory tract for laboratory pathogen detection.

According to the latest report of FDA, in a large-scale study, it was found that pasteurized milk contained avian influenza virus particles (the virus itself has been inactivated), but it did not seem to pose a risk to human health.

FDA epidemic monitor said that the pasteurization process has been providing good health and safety guarantee for public health for hundreds of years, and it is believed that the current avian influenza virus will not pose a health risk to consumers.

"Even if viruses are detected in raw milk, pasteurization can usually eliminate pathogens to a level that does not pose a risk to consumers’ health."

FDA officials added that "in addition to evaluating various types of dairy products (whole milk, cream), more tests and analysis are being conducted on milk on the shelves of stores across the United States".

However, avian influenza virus has been detected in raw milk before, and health authorities have been advising people not to eat raw milk.

April 24th: The latest monitoring by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that there are cases of avian influenza virus infecting cows in nine states:

Related report information:

Original title: Avian Influenza Epidemic: FDA Detects Avian Influenza Virus in Food Store Milk.

Read the original text

Source: Le Tu Travel Network and columnist Mo Xiaohe

It will basically take a whole day to fly to Banna in Changchun, but it is also much faster than the 61 hours by train at that time. After all, it is from one end of the motherland to the other, and it arrived in the night, but it regained its vitality at the moment of landing, put down its luggage and washed away the dust, and it appeared on the crowded street of Binjiang Night Market. When you come to Xishuangbanna, you must not miss the wonderful nightlife here, visiting the night market and eating barbecue.

It’s the first time to try Dai barbecue, which is very different from Lijiang barbecue, especially with the aftertaste of chicken bean jelly. In Dai barbecue, there are many kinds of fish, which are especially tender and delicious. At the beginning, I didn’t dare to order too many pieces of string. When serving, it was not a string, but a plate. It seems that the plate is not big, and I was full before I ate it. Potato chips, grilled fish and eggplant.

In Binjiang Night Market, a particularly interesting thing happened. Standing in front of rows of barbecue stalls, I didn’t really know what to choose, so I ordered a restaurant at random. But just as I stepped inside, there was already a table of guests who repeatedly told me, "Don’t come to this restaurant to eat, our order hasn’t come up yet … Don’t come to this restaurant …" I went to the next door with a skeptical step, and the boss patiently and carefully followed. What are the flavors, and many people who are wrapped up and can’t see the ingredients inside also explained them to me one by one, until we all got up and left, and glanced at the next door. I am glad that the table was in a mess.

Binjiang night market is more lively in a circle of border trading market. It takes about an hour to get back to the starting booth while walking. There are a wide range of border commodities, cigarettes, ornaments and clothes. Of course, there are many beads and jade here. Gadgets are my favorite. There are many small bars outside the night market square. Locals love to come here. It takes about 30 yuan to take a taxi back to the hotel from here ~

Gaozhuang Night Market on the other side of the city is not my dish. The business atmosphere here is rich, and it is full of meaning for tourists. I don’t like those uniform roads and buildings with almost the same decoration style. The Banna style I want to find should be in the streets and lanes, but in the ordinary life of the Dai people.

Another must-taste of Dai flavor is roast chicken, so I actually came to Gaozhuang Night Market to eat roast chicken. I was not surprised when I heard the word roast chicken mentioned by my friends. I just thought that it might be a chicken different from the previous practice. After all, there are many nationalities in China, and 56 practices are not unusual. However, as soon as I stepped into the store, I was shocked by this battle. The stacked bamboo plates and the flying kitchen knives never stopped for a moment. The long carbon stove, There are about a hundred chickens with two rows of plucked hair on them, bubbling with oil by the charcoal fire. Workers turn over their faces from time to time, and there are long bamboo sticks with 50 chicken legs and feet on them, and fresh chicken on one side is being tied with sticks …

I thought this was all, but it wasn’t. Many small dishes with Dai flavor were served first and surrounded the table. There were pineapple rice, bean jelly, Baba, rice noodles, grilled fish and many others I couldn’t name, and the main event was always the last one, which was the delicious roast chicken.

There is a striking Pagoda in Gaozhuang Night Market. From day to night, hot air balloons are constantly put into the air, and there are an endless stream of tourists. No one is allowed to stand under the hot air balloon. Except the person who grasps the direction, I have also chatted with him and asked him what is in the Pagoda. He said with a smile that there is nothing in it, and there is no need to go in to pay homage. Just when I was startled, he said, how can there be a real pagoda every day?

　　Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have fully entered the "5 yuan era". On March 20th, employees of a gas station in Xinle City, Hebei Province were refueling. Photo by Jia Minjie (Zhongjing Vision)

　　Influenced by multiple negative factors, international oil prices have plunged in succession in the past half month. The production of shale oil and gas companies with no financing is unsustainable and will usher in a wave of bankruptcy. The imbalance between supply and demand in the market will accelerate the shift of the focus of the international energy map, from the previous supply-side leading to the demand-side leading, that is, the international crude oil market will be transformed from the seller’s market to the buyer’s market.

　　Influenced by multiple negative factors, international oil prices have plunged in succession in the past half month. On March 18th, the New York Mercantile Exchange light crude oil futures for April delivery closed at $20.37 per barrel, while London Brent crude oil futures for May delivery closed at $24.88 per barrel. Compared with the beginning of this year, the prices of West Texas Intermediate crude oil and Brent crude oil both fell by more than 60%. The sharp drop in international oil prices may reshape the international energy landscape and accelerate the restructuring of the international energy landscape.

　　The imbalance between supply and demand of crude oil has intensified.

　　Nowadays, the basic balance between supply and demand to maintain the trend of international oil prices has been broken.

　　Look at the demand first. The COVID-19 epidemic has spread around the world, and many countries and regions have taken "hard core" measures to prevent and control it. A large number of international flights have been grounded, enterprises have stopped production, and global economic activities have slowed down significantly, which has seriously impacted the global oil demand. Analysts of Lyestad Energy Company lamented that the demand for aviation kerosene, gasoline, shipping oil, petrochemical products and power generation oil plummeted at the same time this year, "this is a rare bleak scene".

　　Bank of America predicts that global oil consumption will shrink to more than 500,000 barrels per day in the first half of this year. If the epidemic situation is not controlled, the shrinking demand may continue into the second half of this year. The head of global commodity research at Goldman Sachs Group pessimistically predicted that oil consumption would drop by 8 million barrels per day. The same view is held by Citibank, which predicts that the global oil demand will decrease by 4 million barrels per day in 2020, a record, and the oil demand in the second quarter will shrink to 11 million barrels per day.

　　Look at the supply. On March 6th, after the OPEC+Ministerial Meeting’s talks on production reduction broke down, Saudi Arabia announced that it would start to increase production substantially, and planned to increase production to 12 million barrels to 12.5 million barrels per day. Russia plans to increase production to 11 million barrels to 11.5 million barrels per day. In order to seize market share, Iraq, Nigeria, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and other countries have also announced to join the army of increasing production.

　　On the one hand, demand has shrunk dramatically, on the other hand, supply has increased dramatically, the relationship between supply and demand has been completely unbalanced, and international oil prices have been diving. Many institutions predict that if the surplus crude oil cannot find a way out, the oil price may drop below $20 per barrel.

　　The imbalance between supply and demand in the market will accelerate the shift of the focus of the international energy map, from the previous supply-side leading to the demand-side leading, that is, the international crude oil market will be transformed from the seller’s market to the buyer’s market. Faced with sufficient market supply, major oil importing countries have a greater say. In recent years, the new map of global energy has gradually become clear, and the global consumption increase of oil and gas resources mainly comes from Asian countries such as China, Indian, Japanese and Korean. This round of falling oil prices will prompt emerging economies to play an increasingly important role in the global energy market.

　　Shale enterprises will be affected.

　　The international oil price plummeted, and those high-cost oil producers were the first to be injured, and shale oil and gas enterprises, especially those with small scale and high debt ratio, were the first to bear the brunt. It is estimated that at the current oil price, most shale oil wells drilled in the United States will be unprofitable. Elacott, senior vice president of Wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting company, believes that falling oil prices may trigger a new round of deep adjustment in the industry.

　　It is estimated that the production cost of most American oil and gas enterprises is above $50 per barrel. When the oil price drops to $30/barrel, only a few companies, such as ExxonMobil, Chevron and Western Petroleum, can continue to drill new wells to make profits, and the rest will all lose money. Different from traditional oil and gas, shale enterprises must constantly drill new wells to maintain production, which requires constant additional investment. To this end, a large number of shale oil companies have to raise funds by issuing bonds. Nowadays, the sharp drop in international oil prices has affected investors’ expected returns and spending plans, making it difficult for shale companies to raise funds. Small and medium-sized oil companies in the United States have begun to cut their investments, such as Apache, which has cut 37%, and Devon Energy, which has cut 30%.

　　Fitch Ratings, a rating agency, predicts that from 2020 to 2022, American shale oil and gas companies will have debts of nearly $200 billion due soon. Due to the sharp drop in oil prices, their debt ratings are close to "junk bonds", and the financing costs of shale oil and gas companies will rise sharply. The production of shale companies with no financing is unsustainable, and will usher in a wave of bankruptcy and become the first batch of "killed" enterprises. Norway’s Ruizide Consulting Company predicts that the crude oil production capacity of American shale companies facing bankruptcy this year will reach 2 million barrels per day. During the low oil price period from 2014 to 2016, dozens of shale enterprises in the United States went bankrupt.

　　Some analysts believe that the exit of American shale companies is exactly what Russia and Saudi Arabia want. The talks between Saudi Arabia and Russia collapsed at the OPEC+Energy Ministers’ Meeting in Vienna, and they failed to reach an agreement on reducing production and insuring prices, and then they started a price war. The main reason was that American shale companies squeezed their market share. "Kill one thousand enemies and lose eight hundred." By suppressing American companies in the form of price wars, Saudi Arabia and Russia have paid a great price and suffered great losses. Oil revenue of oil-producing countries depends on oil price and output. Now that the oil price is halved, the output must be doubled before the two phases can be even.

　　Besides, oil production in Russia and Saudi Arabia also faces cost constraints. Compared with American shale companies, Russia has a good resource endowment and its oil production cost is relatively low. Developed oilfield infrastructure and efficient railways and pipelines enable Russian oil giants to operate at a lower cost. According to estimates, Russian oil companies can bear the low oil price of $15/barrel. In other words, before the oil price drops to $15 to $20 per barrel, Russian energy companies can continue to maintain production, but their profits have shrunk dramatically.

　　For Saudi Arabia, the cost of oil exploitation is lower, less than $3 per barrel. However, in order to maintain the normal operation of the national economy, other costs attached to oil prices are quite high. Saudi Arabia’s national finance mainly relies on oil revenue to maintain the government’s fiscal balance, so it usually needs a high oil price of $80/barrel to support it. Saudi Arabia’s current account is very sensitive to oil price fluctuations, and it is difficult to withstand long-term price wars.

　　Overall beneficial to economic development

　　The sharp drop in international oil prices is indeed a big plus for China as a whole. As the largest net oil importer, the price of crude oil has fallen sharply, which is conducive to China’s significant reduction in crude oil import expenses.

　　Last year, China imported more than 500 million tons of crude oil, with a daily average of 10 million barrels, an increase of 9.5% over the previous year, and the import expenditure was about 166.3 billion US dollars. Now, falling oil prices will save China a lot of money and increase its current account surplus. Ordinary people have already felt the benefits of low oil prices. Recently, China’s refined oil prices have been lowered into the "5 yuan era", and motorists can fill up a tank of oil with less money. As the blood of modern economy, the decline in energy prices is conducive to reducing transportation costs, stabilizing prices, lowering the high CPI index, and providing more space for China’s macroeconomic regulation and control.

　　On international occasions, the decline in international oil prices is also conducive to China’s expansion of "oil diplomacy" space and provides opportunities for the development of "PetroRMB". Yujun Feng, vice president of the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University, believes that when the international oil market is oversupply and the price is low, China can learn from the experience of the European Union, and modify the clauses in the natural gas trade agreements with Russia, Turkmenistan and Myanmar that are linked to oil prices and pay according to demand, so as to safeguard our interests to the maximum extent. At the moment when "the market is king", major oil and gas producers are eager to compete for China’s market share. China can further increase the diversification of oil and gas imports and urge relevant energy suppliers to provide me with more favorable export prices and other conditions. When the international oil price falls into the era of low price, the "Petrodollar" in the financial market will drop sharply, and the oil transaction will tilt towards the buyer’s market, which is conducive to the internationalization of RMB and provides a rare opportunity for the rise of "PetroRMB".

　　However, the sharp drop in international oil prices will also bring a wave of impact to China’s energy industry. China is also a big oil producer, with an oil output of 190 million tons last year. Low oil prices will make domestic oil fields fall into losses and bring cold winter to local oil producers. Chinese-funded enterprises’ overseas oilfield investment will also be adversely affected.

　　The impact on the new energy industry should not be underestimated. Compared with the oil price of $30/barrel, new energy sources such as solar energy and wind energy will be less competitive in the power generation market, which is directly related to the survival of a large number of new energy enterprises and affects the healthy development of the national new energy industry. The spillover effect of low oil prices will also affect new energy vehicles. A joint study by the University of Chicago and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology shows that before the breakthrough of battery technology, the oil price of $50/barrel will make the development of electric vehicles difficult. Today’s oil price of less than $30/barrel will undoubtedly affect the development of new energy vehicles.

　　According to the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Qin Gang, spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, answered questions on the statement issued by the European Union and others on the Wo Weihan case.

　　A reporter asked: The European Union and Austria issued a statement a few days ago, expressing strong dissatisfaction with Wo Weihan’s execution, saying that China’s practice undermined the mutual trust and respect that should be enjoyed by human rights dialogue, which would have destructive consequences. The United States also expressed concern about the Wo case. What is China’s comment on this?

　　Qin Gang: China is a country ruled by law. Wo is a citizen of China, and the evidence of his crime is conclusive. The judicial authorities in China have made a judgment according to law, which is entirely within the jurisdiction of China. The trial procedure of this case was fair, which fully guaranteed the defendant’s various litigation rights.

　　Qin Gang said that the EU and others made irresponsible remarks about the judgments made by China’s judicial departments in accordance with the law, which grossly interfered with China’s justice, trampled on the spirit of the rule of law and damaged the foundation for the healthy development of human rights dialogue between the two sides. We express our strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition to this. China urges the European Union and others to immediately correct their mistakes and stop all words and deeds that interfere with other countries’ justice.

　　Related links: