New energy vehicles are an industry that we have always attached great importance to and tracked. This report was written in November last year, and its judgments on the callback of manufacturers in the middle and lower reaches and the change of valuation logic in the automobile industry are still correct. I hope this research report can help you invest in 2022.

This article was first published on December 14, 2021, and some of its contents still have reference significance, so it is reissued.

Part I: Re-offer

(1) Overall trend: α and β Qi Fei, 2021 is a capital year for the automobile industry.

In the selection of observation objects, we combed the whole new energy industry chain from upstream, middle and downstream, and included it in the popular tracks such as hydrogen fuel cells for analysis.From the industrial chain division, we divide the new energy industrial chain into four parts: downstream, namely, new energy vehicles (EV, PHEV) and related charging equipment; Midstream, that is, power lithium-ion batteries and motors used in new energy electric vehicles; Upstream, that is, the anode material, cathode material, diaphragm and electrolyte that make up the power lithium battery. In addition, we have included the combing of two popular plates: hydrogen fuel cell and skateboard chassis.

In 2021, the performance of the main targets of the new energy automobile industry chain is eye-catching, and the market is riding in all sectors.Benefiting from the fact that the overall sales volume of the automobile market is still stable and the market share of new energy vehicles is eye-catching, it has driven the valuation and profits of the industrial chain of new energy vehicles to rise, pushing the market of the sector to rise all the way. From the market trend, during the year (from January 1, 2021 to December 1, 2021), the weighted average growth rate of the total market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shenwan automobile sector and new energy automobile industry chain was -10.96%, 19.92% and 41.72% respectively; Horizontally, the increase of the industrial chain of new energy vehicles can rank third in the first-class classification of Shenwan, second only to electrical equipment (which is highly coincident with the industrial chain of new energy vehicles) and non-ferrous metals (driven by the commodity market during the year); The top five growth sectors were electrical equipment (50.1%), nonferrous metals (48.2%), new energy (41.72%), mining (31.3%) and public utilities (30.0%).

Some track investment opportunities have narrowed, and the share of "sub-leading" configuration has increased.The concentration of overall institutional positions in the new energy vehicle sector has increased, and the head target of subdivided tracks has been favored by institutions. However, from the wind direction, the main force of institutional allocation has shifted from the first leader to the "second leader", which shows to some extent that some track investment opportunities have narrowed. In terms of institutional positions (including legal person shares), compared with 2020Q3, 2021Q3 includes charging piles such as Wanma (+10.84%), Dangsheng Technology (+6.61%), Putailai (+15.84%), Tianci Materials (+19.75%) and Xinzhoubang (+8.41%).

(2) Profitability: The overall profitability has been restored, and the upstream profits have increased rapidly due to price factors.

After the epidemic, the overall profit of the industrial chain recovered well, GAGR the net profit of the sector reached 42.4% in two years.According to the pool data of the industrial chain standard of new energy vehicles, the overall net profit of new energy vehicles in Q3 will increase by 63.8% year-on-year in 2020 (the epidemic situation was low in cardinal utility last year), and the overall net profit of the sector will reach 42.4% in two years. The main targets are godsend materials (GAGR+315.4% in two years), Shanshan (GAGR+210.5% in two years), German Nano (GAGR+95.3% in two years), Xinzhoubang (GAGR+90.4% in two years), Rongbai Technology (GAGR+85.7% in two years) and Dangsheng Technology (GAGR+85.7% in two years)

The upstream plate benefited from the influence of downstream growth and superimposed price factors, and its profit increased rapidly.In terms of industrial chain links, the downstream (vehicle, charging pile), midstream (battery, motor) and upstream (electrode, diaphragm and electrolyte) have a year-on-year growth rate of 22.1%, 34.9% and 265.5%, respectively, corresponding to Q3, and the GAGR is 25.7%, 30.4% and 97.9% respectively, corresponding to two years.

(3) Valuation: The double logic main line confirms that the valuation of high-volume and high-tech companies has risen significantly.

The valuation of the new energy vehicle sector is still firm, the downstream vehicle valuation is rising, and the upstream lithium battery industry chain valuation is slightly digested.According to the Wind data, the rolling P/E ratio (integral method) of Shanghai-Shenzhen 300, Shenwan first-class automobile classification and self-built new energy industry chain during the year (January 1, 2021-December 1, 2021) increased or decreased by -21.27%, -0.59% and -0.82% respectively, corresponding to the PE(TTM) at the end of the year of 12 times and 12 times respectively. In terms of industrial chain, the rolling P/E ratios of downstream (only counting the whole vehicle), midstream (battery, motor) and upstream (anode and cathode, separator and electrolyte) during the corresponding year (January 1, 2021-December 1, 2021) are 18.72%, -16.65% and -26.01% respectively.

Confirmation of downstream vehicle valuation by dual logic mainline.First, the traditional "manufacturing" valuation logic of automobile enterprises has changed into "consumption" logic, and the valuation center has a positive correlation with automobile sales, and high market share brings high profit growth expectations; Second, the valuation of some new car upstarts and new car-making power companies presents "scientific and technological" logic, and auto companies with high technical barriers and good product experience can get higher valuations.

(1) Total amount: In the short term, the total amount of automobile consumption in China has peaked, and the industry is in an active destocking cycle.

China is the largest automobile consumer in the world, with sales of all kinds of automobiles exceeding 25 million.China has become the world’s largest automobile market for 12 consecutive years since its total automobile sales surpassed that of the United States in 2009. According to the statistics of the International Automobile Manufacturers Association (OICA), in 2020, under the epidemic situation, China’s automobile sales exceeded 25 million, ranking first in the world. In 2020, the top five automobile sales countries are: China (25.31 million vehicles), the United States (20.24 million vehicles), Japan (4.59 million vehicles), Germany (3.26 million vehicles) and India (2.93 million vehicles). The annual automobile sales of China has surpassed the sum of the second-ranked United States and the third-ranked Japan. At the same time of high volume, on the one hand, among the major automobile markets (China, the United States, Japan and Germany), only China and the United States are still expanding; on the other hand, according to the data of the International Automobile Manufacturers Association (OICA), since 2011, the sales of China, the United States, Japan and Germany have increased by 36.78%, 55.25%, 9.22% and -6.85% respectively. Especially after the outbreak, all major automobile markets were hit. In 2020, the annual sales of China, the United States, Japan and Germany will decrease by 1.9%, 18.5%, 11.5% and 18.6% respectively compared with the previous year. Due to the strong overall market resilience and good epidemic control, China’s automobile sales are less affected than other countries.

In the short and medium term, the sales volume of passenger cars will basically be capped in 2018; Car sales showed signs of marginal recovery during the year.According to the data of generalized passenger cars, the total sales volume of generalized passenger cars in 2018-2020 was 22.739 million, 21.015 million and 19.59 million. After the sales volume of passenger cars peaked in 2018, the market shrank obviously. Judging from the high-frequency data, the cumulative sales volume of generalized passenger cars from January to October in 2021 was 16.411 million, which exceeded the total sales volume in 2020 (15.16 million) after the outbreak of the epidemic, slightly lower than that in 2019 (16.877 million) before the epidemic, and automobile sales showed signs of marginal recovery.

According to the seasonal fluctuation, the sales volume of generalized passenger cars will reach more than 20 million in 2021.Under normal circumstances, the annual automobile sales fluctuate seasonally, and the sales volume in the first quarter to the fourth quarter is usually "high-low-low-high". During the autumn auto show in the third quarter, automobile sales began to increase in volume, and the impact of dealer sales at the end of the year superimposed consumers’ demand for car purchases for the New Year. The fourth quarter or the first quarter is usually a one-year sales peak. Due to the seasonal fluctuation of automobile sales in the whole year, we selected the three years before the outbreak as samples, and set January of each year as the benchmark to observe the three complete annual samples of January-December 2017, January-December 2018 and January-December 2019. According to the results, it can be seen that the sales volume of generalized passenger cars in each month of the year does have obvious periodic fluctuations compared with the multiple of January each year. We can get the seasonal factor of automobile consumption by averaging the three-year samples, and calculate the sales volume of passenger cars in November and December through the seasonal factor. According to estimates, the sales volume of generalized passenger cars in 2021 is expected to reach more than 20 million.

The passenger car market has entered an active destocking cycle.Compared with other consumer goods, cars have two obvious characteristics, so they have the conditions to produce inventory cycles. First, the automobile production process is characterized by "heavy industry". Automobile manufacturers have huge production lines, large capital investment and long cycle span of increasing or decreasing production capacity; Second, the sales model is relatively special. Most of China’s automobile sales adopt 4S mode, and the overall inventory of dealers and manufacturers is biased, so it takes a long time to increase or decrease the inventory. Under the action of these two characteristics, the gap between supply and demand in the automobile market will take a long time to repair, which will produce obvious fluctuations, thus leading to periodic changes in inventory. According to our division of automobile inventory cycle, China’s automobile industry has been in an active destocking cycle at the end of 2021 (that is, the total demand is reduced, and dealers and manufacturers take the initiative to clean up the backlog of inventory). With the confirmation of the bottom of demand, the automobile industry will reopen the new cycle of demand recovery, and the industry will experience a passive destocking cycle (the total demand is picking up, and the squeezed inventory is digested by the market), and the overall demand will pick up, or it will show a high degree of prosperity, which will benefit traditional automobile enterprises under the logic of "consumption".

The opportunity to start a new cycle is the recovery of automobile demand, but it takes time for the economy to warm up and wait for the arrival of a new boom cycle.The delay of epidemic situation, automobile consumption and chip shortage aggravated the fluctuation of inventory cycle. On the one hand, the demand for the epidemic backlog was basically released in the second half of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, so the car sales began to fall in the third quarter compared with the same period of last year. On the other hand, the shortage of chips leads to the shortage of inventory, which leads to the continuous low inventory. The sluggish domestic demand and the overlapping inventory cleaning have aggravated the fluctuation of the active destocking cycle, and the demand inventory has both declined, making it difficult for the new cycle to rise. It still takes time for sales to pick up now, and the new cycle must wait for the economy to take the lead in picking up. Under optimistic expectations, the bottom of demand may be confirmed in the fourth quarter of this year.

(2) New energy: From policy-driven to market-driven, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is close to 20%.

The new energy vehicle market is basically mature, and gradually enters the policy exit period, and the industry officially turns from policy-driven to market-driven.Looking back on the development history of new energy vehicles in China, the gradual popularization of electric vehicles in China has gone through many different development periods. First, in the lead-in period, the new energy vehicle industry was launched by the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2009, which released the "Demonstration and Application Project of 1000 Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles in Ten Cities", that is, the policy popularization of electric vehicles in the government (G) and large enterprises (B) was completed through financial subsidies, with the aim of making the operation scale of new energy vehicles in China account for 10% of the automobile market share by 2012. Second, in the growth period, that is, the subsidy-driven stage, through financial subsidies to individual users’ consumption terminals and a loose purchase restriction policy, new energy vehicles will be gradually popularized from B-end and G-end to individual users’ C-end. Third, the maturity period, that is, the development of the field after the subsidy retreats from policy-driven to market-driven. At the beginning of 2019, the four departments jointly issued the Notice on Further Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles, and the new energy subsidies retreated by 50%. "Cheating" no longer exists, and new energy automobile enterprises have undergone a major reshuffle. Fourth, the market-driven stage. Now, with the advent of the post-subsidy era, the new energy vehicle market has completed the passive cleaning after the subsidy decline, and has officially transitioned from subsidy-driven to market-driven. So far, it has developed into a strategic emerging industry with a large scale, a high degree of marketization and a relatively complete industrial chain development. In 2021, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 2.8 million, and the monthly penetration rate is close to 20%, which will also become the first year of policy support and market-driven differentiation.

Although the total automobile consumption is capped in the short term, the new energy vehicle market is hot, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles approaching 20% in a single month and the annual sales volume expected to exceed 2.8 million.According to the data of China Automobile Association, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 (January-October) was 2.31%, 4.45%, 4.95%, 5.96% and 14.23% respectively. In August, September and October of 2021, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 19.78%, 19.47% and 18.24% respectively, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in a single month approached 20%; According to the calculation, taking the data of 2019 before the epidemic as the seasonal fluctuation benchmark, we predict that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2021 is expected to exceed 2.8 million.

(3) Structure: the rise of independent brands will boost the high prosperity of the new energy vehicle market.

From the category of new energy vehicles, electric vehicles are still the absolute main force; The policy side of hydrogen energy vehicles began to exert its strength.From the perspective of technology path, according to the data of China Industrial Information Network, the current (2020) market share of various technology paths is pure electric (BEV) > common hybrid (HEV) > plug-in hybrid (PHEV) > > fuel cell; Among them, the annual sales of ordinary hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric and fuel cell powered passenger cars in 2020 are 244,261, 245,157, 955,541 and 0 respectively, with corresponding market shares of 1.23%, 1.23%, 4.81% and 0.00% respectively, and electric vehicles are still the absolute main force. Due to the high use cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, insufficient popularity of hydrogen refueling stations, insufficient strength of self-owned brand hydrogen vehicles and other factors, the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars has been almost zero since 2015, and the market of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars has not been officially launched so far. However, according to the "Technology Roadmap for Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles", it is estimated that by 2035, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach about 1 million, and commercial vehicles will take the lead in realizing hydrogen power transformation. According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, the actual number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China from 2015 to 2020 is 0, 10, 639, 1911, 3438, 6175 and 7352 respectively. If the number of fuel cell vehicles reaches 1 million in 2035, the GAGR of hydrogen energy vehicles will reach 38.8% from 2020 to 2035.

Entry-level and mid-range new energy vehicles dominate the market.From the market share of new energy vehicles at all levels, the order is A (compact car) > B (medium car) > A00 (mini car) > A0 (small car) > C (medium and large car). From the trend point of view, in the past two years, A00 (mini-car) and B (medium-sized car) have grown rapidly, which is contrary to the "two poles" situation of high-end and low-end car sales of fuel vehicles. The polarization of market demand for fuel vehicles mainly comes from the fact that the upgrading of automobile consumption in first-and second-tier cities drives the sales of high-end cars and luxury brands to rise, and the popularity of automobile consumption in rural areas drives the market share of low-end and functional passenger cars to soar. The consumers of new energy vehicles are mostly concentrated in the first-and second-tier cities where the charging infrastructure is relatively complete and there are restrictions on the purchase of fuel vehicles. Therefore, the functional demand when buying a car has become the main consideration, which has driven the sales of A00 low-cost new energy vehicles to rise; At the same time, because the leading models of major manufacturers in the market are concentrated in A-class (compact car) and B-class (medium car), the high-end market of electric vehicles has not been favored and recognized by high-end consumers on a large scale, and mid-range cars dominate the market.

With the strong rise of independent brands, the competition among waist manufacturers tends to be fierce.In terms of car companies, the top five car companies in terms of sales of new energy vehicles (including BEV and PHEV) from January to October in 2021 are BYD (410,801 vehicles), Tesla (349,397 vehicles), SAIC-GM-Wuling (341,757 vehicles), SAIC-GM-Wuling (133,911 vehicles) and Great Wall Motor (977 vehicles). From the perspective of market concentration, from January to October in 2019, 2020 and 2021, the automobile sales CR5 of new energy automobile enterprises were 59.5%, 49.1% and 56.6%, respectively, showing a downward trend, and the competition among waist manufacturers became fierce.

The second part: carding

(1) Complete vehicle: High-quality vehicles are concentrated on the stage, which will boost the sales of new energy vehicles at the micro level.

Tesla’s status remains the same, and BYD’s performance is eye-catching, and both of them occupy the main market share.According to the data of the Federation, the top five sales of pure electric vehicles (BEV) from January to October 2021 were Wuling Hongguang MINI EV(325166 vehicles), Tesla Model 3(216583 vehicles), Tesla Model Y(132814 vehicles) and BYD Han EV(66867 vehicles). The top five sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) are BYD Qin PLUS DM(78316 vehicles), BYD Song DM(49291 vehicles), BYD Tang DM(31439 vehicles), BYD Han DM(24256 vehicles) and MG eHS(20344 vehicles).

2021 is the year of new energy automobile products, with low total price and high performance products frequently.The appearance of high-quality vehicles explains the phenomenon of high permeability of new energy vehicles in 2021 from the micro level. In 2021, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, Tesla Model 3, BYD Qin PLUS BEV and other market-leading products have a longer cruising range, higher configuration and more cost-effective performance at a relatively low price from the perspective of calibrated cruising range.

The profitability of major manufacturers has been repaired well, and the growth rate of GAGR has turned positive in two years.Take BYD (the main products are Han EV and Qin PLUS BEV) and Great Wall Motor (the main products are Euler Good Cat), the Q1-3 performance of BYD in 2019 -2021 is 1.895 billion yuan (GAGR-26.0% in two years), 4.902 billion yuan (GAGR51.1% in two years) and 3.297 billion yuan respectively. Great Wall Motor’s performance was 2.951 billion yuan (GAGR1.0% in two years), 2.587 billion yuan (GAGR-19.2% in two years) and 4.945 billion yuan (GAGR29.4% in two years) respectively. The new energy vehicle market turned to demand-driven, and benefited from the rebound in consumer demand for passenger cars in the post-epidemic period. The net profit of the two major domestic manufacturers turned positive in two years, excluding the low base and high reading effect of the epidemic. The expected growth rate also led to a significant increase in the valuation of related OEMs, achieving a double increase in valuation performance.

(2) Charging pile: The "new infrastructure" boosts the penetration rate of superimposed new energy vehicles, and the track growth is confirmed.

"New Infrastructure" empowers the charging pile track and confirms long-term growth.In recent years, relevant ministries and commissions have continuously paid attention to strengthening the charging infrastructure of new energy vehicles, that is, the construction of charging piles. In 2020, the central government also included it in the hypothetical planning of "new infrastructure" (5G base station construction, UHV, high-speed rail and urban rail transit, artificial intelligence, big data center, industrial Internet, and charging piles for new energy vehicles). With the blessing of the new infrastructure policy, the charging pile market has increased sharply. As a supporting facility for the promotion of new energy vehicles, the charging pile market is expected to usher in a golden period of development.

The private pile mode led by car enterprises and the power station mode led by operators run together, and the market share of private piles is dominant.From the industrial chain, the upstream, middle and downstream links of the charging pile industrial chain and their corresponding modes are as follows: upstream-charging equipment and module suppliers such as Teruide, Guodian Nanrui and Xuji Electric; Midstream-charging station operators such as TELD (Teruide subsidiary), State Grid, Star Charging, etc. purchase charging equipment from upstream manufacturers and charge charging fees for downstream new energy vehicles; Downstream-major new energy vehicle companies, car users can charge from the operators of midstream charging stations, and car companies can also provide charging equipment to car users by purchasing charging equipment from upstream equipment suppliers. From the specific business model, the business model involving charging piles can be divided into two categories. One is the operator-led model, such as State Grid and TEL, which provide charging services to car users by purchasing charging equipment to earn fees; The second is the leading mode of car companies. For example, Tesla and Weilai provide charging pile setting services to car buyers. This mode does not directly generate income for car companies, but can help car companies complete ecological chain integration and improve overall service quality and user experience.

The total construction of charging piles in China is highly correlated with the maintenance of new energy vehicles, and there has been a trend of heavy volume.In terms of total scale, the total construction of domestic charging piles has exceeded 2.5 million units. According to the statistics of China Charging Alliance, the total construction of charging piles in China in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 (October) was 204,000, 446,000, 777,000, 1.223 million, 1.672 million and 2.253 million respectively. From the structural point of view, the share of private charging piles has increased significantly. Charging piles can be divided into public charging piles (charging piles set up and operated by charging station operators, shopping malls, office buildings and other entities) and private charging piles (charging piles set up by electric vehicle companies or car owners themselves in personal parking spaces for car owners’ use only). According to the data of the charging alliance, the share of private charging piles (the number of private charging piles/the total number of public and private charging piles) increased from 33.0% in 2016 to 61.1% in 2020, and the share of private charging piles increased significantly. Judging from the specific market structure, taking public charging piles as an example, the top three charging station operators are Star Charging (238,597 units), Special Calls (232,121 units) and State Grid (196,484 units), with obvious head effect.

Based on the "pile-vehicle" ratio, it is conservatively estimated that the charging pile market will have more than five times the space in the next five years.In 2015, the "Guidelines for the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (2015-2020)" issued by the General Office of the State Council planned that the ratio of "pile to vehicle" would be 1: 1 by the end of 2020, but this value has not yet been realized (only about 34%). By conservative estimation, it is assumed that the number of new energy vehicles will be 20 million by 2025, and the "pile-vehicle" ratio will be 50% by 2025. According to this calculation, the total number of charging piles will reach more than 10 million by 2025, corresponding to GAGR of 43.01%.

Judging from the performance of the capital market, with the demand for charging piles driven by new energy vehicles rising, the valuation and performance of the main related targets have doubled.From the perspective of profitability, the main targets involved in the charging pile industry chain are driven by the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, and the net profit still maintains a certain growth rate. The corresponding net profit of Guodian Nanrui and Xuji Electric 2021Q3 increased by 24.0% and 19.2% respectively. Teruide is subject to the star charging and the state grid’s run on the market share of its charging pile operator’s special call, and the cost of charging piles in the early stage has increased. The net profit in 2021Q3 was -65.3% year-on-year. However, with the recovery of the early cost of charging piles, the charging station has a high industry prosperity, and its profitability is expected to narrow and stop falling. Judging from the capital market valuation, the PE(TTM) of Teruide, Guodian Nanrui and Xuji Electric increased by 52%, 72% and 83% respectively by the end of November, and the industry growth expectation rose, driving the valuation trend to rise.

(1) Power battery: The overall situation has been set, and the leader is always strong, so be alert to the risk of short-term and medium-term valuation callback.

Cathode material is that core factor to distinguish the performance of pow battery products. Our common secondary lithium batteries mainly rely on the back-and-forth intercalation and deintercalation of lithium ions between the positive and negative electrodes to realize energy storage and release. From the perspective of composition and structure, lithium-ion batteries are mainly composed of four parts: first, the cathode material is the key to determine the performance of power battery products, accounting for 30% to 40% of the cost of lithium-ion batteries (GGII data), which directly affects the energy density and performance of lithium battery packs. Common cathode materials include lithium cobaltate, lithium manganate, Ferrous lithium phosphate and ternary materials; Second, the negative electrode plays the role of energy storage and release. At present, the negative electrode material is mainly graphite, which accounts for a relatively low proportion in the cost of lithium battery, and the technical barrier is slightly lower than that of the positive electrode. The third is the diaphragm. The main function of the diaphragm is to separate the anode and cathode of the battery, and it has electronic insulation while maintaining ionic conductivity, so as to realize the mechanical isolation of insulation between the anode and cathode. Fourthly, electrolyte, which plays the role of transporting charge between positive and negative electrodes, affects the energy density, power density, wide temperature application, cycle life, safety performance and other factors of lithium battery pack.

From the structural point of view, lithium iron phosphate batteries are rising rapidly. It is estimated that the total installed capacity of power batteries will increase by about 35% in 2022.In terms of market volume, the total installed capacity of various power batteries from January to October in 2021 was 107.45GWh, an increase of 168.1% compared with 40.07GWh in the same period in 2020. From the perspective of demand structure, lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary material battery are divided into two markets, accounting for almost all the market share. From January to October 2021, the installed capacity of ternary material and Ferrous lithium phosphate was 54.05GWh and 53.21GWh respectively, and the ternary material/Ferrous lithium phosphate ratio was 1.02 (from January to October 2020, the ratio was 2.11), benefiting from lower cost and technological upgrading (BYD blade battery). Through the calculation of the growth rate of electric vehicles, assuming that the total passenger car market remains unchanged in 2022, the total installed capacity of power batteries in 2022 can reach 35.14% compared with that in 2021, based on the 20% penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales in 2022 (the value is about 14.8% in 2021).

The competition pattern of manufacturers tends to be stable, and the head effect is obvious.According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in the first three quarters of 2021, the top ten enterprises in China’s power battery loading capacity were Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, BYD, AVIC Lithium Battery, LG New Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Honeycomb Energy, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Tafel New Energy, Funeng Technology and Jiewei Power. From the perspective of market concentration, the installed pattern of power lithium batteries is concentrated in head manufacturers such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited and self-supply core manufacturers such as BYD. According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance and GGII, the market concentration of power lithium battery manufacturers in CR10 will be 74%, 84% and 93% respectively. Among them, the power lithium battery manufacturer CR10 jumped from about 81% three years ago to 93%, and the CR10 in 2018 -2020 was 83%, 88% and 93% respectively. In the first three quarters of 2021, a total of 54 power battery enterprises in China’s new energy vehicle market achieved vehicle loading facilities, 10 fewer than the same period of last year. The vehicle loading capacity of CR3, CR5 and CR10 power battery enterprises was 67.2GWh, 77.0GWh and 84.4GWh respectively, accounting for 73.0%, 83.6% and 91.7% of the total vehicle. With the further promotion of the marketization process of the new energy automobile industry, the concentration of power battery manufacturers has gradually increased, and the market concentration has gradually increased, and the trend of further marketing is very obvious. In the post-subsidy stage, the advantages of technical barriers and bargaining power are gradually highlighted.Heading trend of power lithium battery manufacturers will be further established. The first is the issue of technical barriers. From the technical point of view, the dispute between lithium iron and ternary is getting more and more fierce. With the division of lithium battery technology path, the stratification of manufacturing and technical level, which is beneficial to the development of head enterprises, the Matthew effect of manufacturers will be further highlighted. The second is the issue of supplier control. Due to the obvious phenomenon of headedness of power lithium battery manufacturers, the head manufacturers have a high degree of market monopoly, and have stronger bargaining power with upstream suppliers of anode and cathode materials, separators and even raw materials, which can realize a profit margin much larger than that of small and medium-sized manufacturers, and aggravate the trend of headedness of market competition pattern.

The supply chain pays attention to the demand of leading new energy vehicle companies.Head lithium battery manufacturers have strong bargaining power upstream and downstream, but the total demand for short-term and medium-term power lithium batteries of sub-head manufacturers comes from downstream OEMs, so the fundamentals of upstream battery suppliers of leading new energy vehicle enterprises are more supported. According to the annual reports of companies, First Electric Network, MarkLines and other data, according to the battery supplier information of Tesla, BYD, Tucki, Weilai, Toyota, BMW, Volkswagen, Geely and Guangzhou Automobile, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (8), BYD (2), Guoxuan Hi-Tech (1), Yiwei Lithium Energy (2) and Funeng Technology (1).

The technical side pays attention to BYD blade battery technology and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited CTP(Cell to Pack) technology to drive enterprise battery loading capacity.Under normal circumstances, ternary batteries have strong endurance, but the raw material of ternary batteries is cobalt, but the main origin of cobalt comes from Congo and the market is in a monopoly position. Due to the unstable supply of cobalt, its price is high, which drives the cost of ternary materials to be high. However, the cost of lithium iron phosphate battery is relatively low and the safety factor is higher, but the energy density is damaged in winter due to poor low temperature resistance.Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited scheme-CTP (cell to pack) reduces the manufacturing cost of ternary batteries.Generally, the battery Pack carried on an electric vehicle is assembled into a Module by cells, and then assembled into a battery pack, while CTP(Cell to Pack) is that the cells are directly integrated into the battery pack, thus eliminating the intermediate module link, increasing the energy density and reducing the manufacturing cost. According to the data disclosed by the information platform of Cheyan Society, the large integrated module based on 21700 adopted by Tesla Model 3 has reduced the battery cost by 35% compared with the previous one, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited CTP technology has the same effect.BYD’s plan-blade battery commission to improve the energy density of lithium iron phosphate battery.BYD’s blade battery research and development is based on lithium iron phosphate battery. The traditional battery mode is mostly cylindrical, and more gaps will be formed after the single batteries are stacked, and then the space utilization rate can only reach more than 40% except for the supporting cooling and supporting components. The flat blade battery can reduce the invalid gap between single cells, and the space utilization is as high as 60%, and the energy density is improved. At the same time, the increase of surface area can also play a greater role in heat dissipation.

The capital market is wary of the risk of short-term and medium-term valuation callback.In the short and medium term, the technology growth track, especially the new energy vehicles, power batteries and other industries and tracks, has accumulated a lot of gains. The track has been relatively crowded, and the fundamentals of many leading companies are strong, but the historical valuation water level is close to 80% or even more than 90%. Once the internal liquidity is not too loose and the external liquidity is slightly tightened, there may be a valuation market, and the risk is very worthy of attention.

(2) Motor: Self-made motors by leading car companies will become the mainstream, paying attention to new concepts and technologies such as hub motors.

Benefiting from China’s rare earth resources reserves, permanent magnet synchronous motors have become the mainstream of the market with high output and low cost.According to the technical scheme, common motors include DC motor, AC asynchronous motor and permanent magnet synchronous motor. Among them, DC motor is a direct-driven motor with relatively simple structure and good electromagnetic torque control characteristics, but it is easy to produce electric sparks on the commutator surface at high speed and heavy load, which is easy to produce electromagnetic interference. It is relatively common in the early development of electric vehicles and has been basically eliminated at present. Ac asynchronous motor is a motor that puts the rotor in a rotating magnetic field to get the rotating torque to drive the rotor to rotate. AC asynchronous motor is small in size, light in weight and low in price. However, under the condition of high-speed operation, the rotor of the motor is seriously heated, so it is necessary to ensure the motor to be cooled when working. At the same time, the drive and control system of asynchronous motor is very complicated and the cost of the motor itself is high, so it is mainly used in high-power electric commercial vehicles. Permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) is a synchronous motor that uses permanent magnets to establish the excitation magnetic field, which has a higher (power/mass) ratio, smaller volume and lighter weight. However, the production of rare earth PMSM requires rare earth materials, and the manufacturing cost is not stable. However, thanks to the relative abundance of rare earth resources, China prefers to use permanent magnet synchronous motor as the driving scheme for electric vehicles, and this path has become the most widely used motor scheme for electric vehicles today.

The total amount of motor loading will benefit with the increase of electric vehicle sales; It has become a trend for leading car companies to produce their own motors for their own use, which has squeezed the market share of waist and tail motor manufacturers.From the perspective of the total market size, the penetration dividend of new energy vehicles has driven the demand for motors to pick up. According to EVTank’s calculation data, it is estimated that the installed capacity of driving motors for new energy vehicles in China will reach 2.983 million units in 2021, up by 103.90% year-on-year, and the shipment of driving motors for new energy vehicles in China will exceed 10 million units by 2025. From the perspective of competition pattern, the replacement of domestic motors by mainstream car companies is just at the time, and the self-production and self-use of leading car companies has become a trend. According to the data disclosed by EVTank, BYD Motor’s market share will be 13.2% in 2020, ranking first; Tesla Motor’s market share is 9.9%, ranking second; Founder motor’s market share is 6.7%, ranking the top three; The market shares of Weiran Power, Ningbo Shuangxiu, Volkswagen, Nippon Denso, Borg Warner, Jinjing Electric and Shanghai Electric Drive have squeezed into the top ten in China, with market shares of 6.0%, 5.9%, 5.2%, 5.1%, 4.0%, 3.4% and 3.0% respectively.

The growth rate of the total number of tracks is still there, but under the trend of self-made motors by head car companies, non-head manufacturers are basically facing difficulties, so they should be alert to the risk of market share crowding out.From the perspective of the total market, the growth dividend of new energy vehicles is superimposed on the "double electric four-wheel drive" to release motor demand and boost the overall fundamental improvement of the industry. At present, the market share of new energy vehicles is Class A (compact car) > Class B (medium-sized car) > Class A00 (mini-car) > Class A0 (small car) > Class C (medium-sized car). Due to the rapid growth of Class B (medium-sized car), "double motors+four-wheel drive" has become the mainstream configuration, and doubling the demand for motors is expected to boost the high prosperity of the motor market. However, from the structural point of view, although the total motor market has great expansion potential, its market share is mainly occupied by self-made motors owned by head enterprises such as BYD, Tesla and Weilai. According to statistics and forecast data of EVTank, the market size of driving motors for new energy vehicles in China will be about 7.464 billion yuan in 2020. According to the market structure in 2020, the theoretical upper market share limits of Founder Motor and Precision Electric are 500 million and 254 million respectively, and there is little room for waist and tail motor enterprises, which basically faces a deep gap. At the same time, benefiting from the high sentiment of the market for the industrial chain of new energy vehicles, the relevant targets have accumulated a lot of gains in 2021, and the risk of market correction of waist and tail motor enterprises is worthy of attention.

Hub motor-a new concept technology deserves attention, and at the same time, we should be alert to the risk of technical path.Hub motor is a system that integrates the power system, transmission system and braking system of the car into the hub. On the one hand, the application of in-wheel motor can simplify the structure of the vehicle to the greatest extent, save more space and weight, and reduce the maintenance cost caused by complex mechanical structure. On the other hand, if each wheel of the vehicle is equipped with a hub motor, each tire can be driven independently, thus realizing a variety of complex driving modes. The differential lock and full-time four-wheel drive system of the traditional fuel vehicle will no longer have any advantages, so the hub motor has strong application value for special vehicles. However, at the same time, the hub motor increases the moment of inertia of the unsprung weight and the hub, which affects the vehicle handling performance. The physical space occupied by the hub motor system is too small, which leads to limited acceleration and braking performance. In addition, the hub motor system also has high requirements for sealing and heat dissipation. Therefore, it is also worthy of vigilance against the risk of technical path. We should adhere to the idea of early investment and implement the investment of the hub motor track. If the technical path is correct, we will win all, and if the path is wrong, we will lose all. As the hub motor technology is still not the mainstream path in the world, there are few domestic manufacturers. However, companies such as Asia Pacific, Wanan Technology and Tate Electromechanical Co., Ltd. have successively cooperated with international manufacturers to rapidly promote the development and application of hub-driven motors in new energy vehicles, among which Wanan Technology and Tate Electromechanical Co., Ltd. have successively withdrawn or been acquired.

(1) positive electrode: the core of lithium battery performance, Sanyuan and Ferrous lithium phosphate market achieve differentiated competition.

Cathode material is one of the key materials to determine the performance of lithium ion batteries.Cathode material has always been the core of lithium-ion battery, and the choice of cathode material directly determines the performance of the battery. The common cathode materials are mainly oxides, which have higher electrode potential than lithium and can ensure a higher open circuit voltage of the battery. From the cost point of view, the power battery is one of the most expensive integrated components of the whole vehicle, and the cathode material accounts for about 40% of the cost of lithium batteries. Whether from the cost point of view or the technical point of view, the cathode material is the core of lithium batteries. Because cathode materials have a great influence on battery performance, major manufacturers have long been committed to developing cathode materials with higher performance based on different technical solutions. Common cathode materials for lithium batteries mainly include lithium ternary (NCM), Ferrous lithium phosphate (LFP), lithium cobaltate (LCO) and lithium manganate (LMO). After years of technical path iteration, LFP and NCM now occupy almost all the market share of power batteries for new energy vehicles.

Ternary materials-"high nickel" is the development trend of ternary cathode materials, and "medium nickel ternary" is still the mainstream in the market at present.Ternary material is the common name of lithium-nickel-cobalt-manganese oxide with a very similar structure to lithium cobaltate. Among them, nickel, cobalt and manganese can be balanced and regulated in terms of specific energy, recyclability, safety and cost. The different configuration of nickel, cobalt and manganese will bring different properties to the material: the increase of nickel content will increase the capacity of the material, but it will make the cycle performance worse; The existence of cobalt can make the material structure more stable, but too high a content will reduce the capacity. At the same time, the main source of cobalt is Congo, and the market is in a monopoly position, which is subject to the unstable supply of cobalt, resulting in higher costs. The existence of manganese can reduce the cost and improve the safety performance, but if the content is too high, it will destroy the layered structure of the material. Therefore, it is the focus of ternary material research and development to find the proportion relationship of the three materials to achieve the optimization of comprehensive performance.

According to the proportion of nickel, cobalt and manganese, the common ternary cathodes in the market at present can be divided into NCM523, NCM622, NCM811 and other types (the last three digits represent the proportion of nickel (n), cobalt (c) and manganese (m) respectively, for example, the proportion of nickel, cobalt and manganese in NCM523 is 5: 3: 2). NCM523, which accounts for 30.8% of nickel, is called "middle nickel ternary". Similarly, NCM622 and NCM811 have nickel contents of 37.3% and 50.7% respectively, which can be called "middle high nickel ternary" and "high nickel ternary". Because the mass proportions of nickel, cobalt and manganese are different, the performance of the above-mentioned ternary cathode materials also has its own advantages and disadvantages. For example, NCM523 has a low energy density, but the overall cost performance is high; NCM811 has obvious advantages in energy density, but the process threshold is higher and the manufacturing is more difficult. Therefore, in terms of market share, NCM523 with higher comprehensive cost performance accounts for a larger market share. According to Xinyi information data, the market share of ternary cathode corresponding to NCM523, NCM622 and NCM811 will be 53%, 20% and 22% respectively in 2020.

Ferrous lithium phosphate-low cost+low performance = high cost performance. The way to break the situation in Ferrous lithium phosphate lies in technological breakthrough.Ferrous lithium phosphate is one of the most commonly used lithium ion cathode materials besides ternary materials. Compared with ternary cathode, it has better safety and lower production cost, but the corresponding battery energy density is lower and the battery attenuation is more serious in winter. Ferrous lithium phosphate’s theoretical specific capacity is 170mA/g, and its voltage platform is 3.7V V. It has good thermal stability, small hygroscopicity and excellent charge-discharge cycle performance in a fully charged state, and the superimposed manufacturing cost is low, which has become the focus of research and production development in the field of power lithium-ion batteries except ternary materials. However, due to the limitation of its own structure, the lithium ion battery with LiFePO4 as cathode material has poor conductivity, slow lithium ion diffusion rate, poor discharge performance at low temperature and low energy density. As a representative of "low cost+low performance", lithium iron phosphate batteries have long been used in low-end and cost-effective vehicles. Nowadays, BYD blade batteries have been installed on Han EV and other vehicles. The length of blade batteries is more than 0.6m, and they are arranged together in an array and inserted into the battery pack like "blades". On the one hand, it can improve the space utilization rate of the power battery pack and increase the energy density. On the other hand, it can ensure that the battery cell has a large enough heat dissipation area to conduct the internal heat to the outside, thus matching a high energy density. Blade battery has achieved relatively higher energy density and relatively moderate manufacturing cost through module-free integration, while taking into account other performances such as heat dissipation.

A00-class cars pull Ferrous lithium phosphate, while middle and high-end cars pull ternary materials. The two cars realize differentiated competition, and the market share game will continue.Judging from the total market share, ternary material positive battery and Ferrous lithium phosphate positive battery occupy almost all of the market share. According to the data of China Automobile Power Battery Industry Alliance, the number of vehicles loaded with ternary material positive battery and Ferrous lithium phosphate positive battery reached 54.05GWh and 53.21GWh respectively from January to October 2021, which increased by 100.1% and 316.4% respectively compared with the same period last year (the first October), and the growth rate was very rapid. At the same time, Ferrous lithium phosphate performed better, and its market share increased rapidly. The ratio of installed capacity (ternary material positive battery/Ferrous lithium phosphate positive battery) decreased from 2.11 in the same period last year to 1.02 this year. Our explanation for this phenomenon is that medium nickel ternary is commonly used in A-class cars, high nickel ternary is commonly used in B-class and C-class cars, while Ferrous lithium phosphate is mainly used in A00-class mini-cars. By comparing the market share of ternary and C-class new energy vehicles, it can also be confirmed that the market share of Ferrous lithium phosphate and A00-class cars is highly correlated, and the market share of Ferrous lithium phosphate is equally highly correlated. Therefore, the lithium iron phosphate battery benefited from the mini-car becoming the main force in the electric vehicle market, and the overall prosperity increased significantly, quickly seizing the market share. However, in essence, the overlap between the target users of ternary material positive battery and Ferrous lithium phosphate positive battery is still not high, and the market of the two batteries has achieved misplaced development, so the installed capacity of the two batteries will continue to be high in the future.

Positive head continues to gather, paying attention to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited supply chain.Judging from the competition pattern, the market share of ternary cathode and Ferrous lithium phosphate cathode continues to move closer to the head. According to the data of GGII, Xinyi Information, lithium research and so on, the top ten manufacturers of cathode materials in 2020 are German Nano (Ferrous lithium phosphate, 9%), Rongbai Technology (ternary materials, 8%), Betray (Ferrous lithium phosphate, 8%), Guoxuan Hi-Tech (Ferrous lithium phosphate, 6%) and Tianjin Ba Maw (ternary materials, 6. Due to the obvious head effect of power battery, according to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, GGII and other institutions, the market concentration of power lithium battery manufacturers in 2020 is 74%, 84% and 93% respectively, and the supply chain enterprises of head manufacturers such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (with a global market share of 29.9% in 2021H) and BYD are worthy of attention.

(2) Negative electrode: pay attention to the profit increase caused by the capacity gap in the short term, and pay attention to the non-carbon material leader in the long term.

Artificial graphite is the main material used as the negative electrode of power lithium battery.The negative electrode is the carrier of lithium ions and electrons in the battery charging process, which plays the role of energy storage and release. Therefore, the following factors must be taken into account when selecting the negative electrode material: first, the material selected as the negative electrode must meet the requirement that the redox potential of lithium ions in the negative electrode matrix is as low as possible; second, the intercalated compound should have good electronic conductivity and ionic conductivity, and the intercalated compound has good chemical stability in the whole voltage range, so as to ensure that the battery can maintain higher energy density and stability while operating normally. From the classification of elements, we can divide the existing anode materials into two categories: carbon materials and non-carbon materials, in which the carbon materials include graphite materials (natural graphite, artificial graphite and mesophase carbon ball) and other carbon systems (hard carbon, soft carbon and graphene). Non-carbon materials can be subdivided into titanium-based materials, silicon-based materials, tin-based materials, nitrides and metallic lithium. Compared with other materials, artificial graphite is the mainstream choice in the market because of its good cycle performance, superior safety, mature technology, easy access to raw materials and low cost. According to information disclosed by GGII, the market share of artificial graphite products will reach 84% in 2020. Other anode materials, such as silicon-based anode, failed to achieve the expected growth due to the switch of main shipment models of domestic cylindrical battery products and the delay in upgrading the high-nickel system of square power batteries, and the market share declined.

Graphitization accounts for the largest proportion in the manufacturing process, and graphitization of electricity price is the main cost. It is estimated that the power consumption cost per ton of artificial graphite cathode is as high as 8750-10500 yuan.The traditional artificial graphite process is divided into four parts: first, pretreatment, that is, according to different products, graphite raw materials and asphalt are mixed in different proportions, put into an air flow mill for airflow milling, and the raw and auxiliary materials with a particle size of 5-10 mm are milled to 5-10 microns. The second is granulation, that is, the middle is put into the reaction kettle, which is electrically heated according to the temperature curve. After that, the volatile gas in the reaction kettle is pumped out by the fan, condensed by the condensation tank, and the liquid phase is condensed in tar form. The gaseous waste gas is led out by the fan, filtered by activated carbon and evacuated. The third is graphitization-graphitization of the granulated materials. Usually, this step adopts outsourcing mode, which is the main cost in the whole production process. Fourthly, ball milling and screening: the graphitized materials are transported to a ball mill through vacuum, physically mixed and ball milled, screened with a 270-mesh molecular sieve, and the undersized materials are inspected, measured, packaged and put into storage. The traditional manufacturing industry of artificial graphite anode materials has a heavy attribute, and the cost mainly lies in the upstream labor cost and electricity charge. According to Shanhe Intelligent Announcement, the power consumption of crucible Acheson furnace, box furnace and continuous graphite furnace is about 10,000-12,000 kWh/ton, 7,000-8,000 kWh/ton and 5,500 kWh/ton, and the current industrial electricity charge is 1.025 yuan /kWh in peak hours and in normal periods.The power consumption cost of Qi’s corresponding production process is 8750-10500 yuan/ton, 6125-7000 yuan/ton and 4813 yuan/10,000 tons respectively. If the annual production capacity is 10,000 tons, the annual cost of pure electricity for the preparation of artificial graphite is about 87.5 million to 105 million yuan.

The scale of domestic enterprises is "going out to sea", and the competitive situation of manufacturers is still there.From the perspective of domestic market structure, according to the data disclosed by GGII, in 2020, the top five domestic companies in the market share of anode materials for power lithium batteries are Betray (China market share is 20%), Shanshan (16%), Putailai (17%), Kaijin Energy (13%) and Xiangfenghua (7%), and domestic market manufacturers present "three big and many small" competition. According to GGII data, the top five companies in the global market share of anode materials for power lithium batteries in 2020 are Putailai (global market share 12%), Betray (10%), Shanshan (10%), Kaijin Energy (7%) and Pohang (5%), and the scale of China enterprises is "going out to sea". As the negative electrode material has not yet entered the technological innovation cycle, the barriers to participation are mainly production capital, and the technical barriers are lower than those of the positive electrode material and the power lithium battery in the downstream of the industrial chain, so the competitive situation of manufacturers is still there.

Short-term attention to limited production capacity will boost the profit growth of head enterprises, and long-term attention will be paid to the long-term growth of non-carbon materials.On the one hand, in a short period of time, the state has increased the policy of double control of energy consumption, and strictly controlled projects with high energy consumption and high emissions. Under the system of "double control" of energy consumption, high-energy industries such as graphitization of anode materials bear the brunt. Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, it is stipulated that the profiling equipment, roasting equipment and production line of ordinary and high-power graphite electrodes in the autonomous region, and the production line of graphite electrodes below 600 mm in diameter will all be withdrawn in principle before the end of 2021, so the production capacity of artificial graphite negative electrodes will decrease in the short term. At the same time, because the graphitization process in the production process of artificial graphite anode is mostly outsourced, manufacturers with high market share and high self-sufficiency in graphitization process will benefit from this under the negative electrode capacity gap. On the other hand, although the large-scale production technology of artificial graphite is quite mature, its current technical conditions are close to its theoretical specific capacity of 372mAh/g, which is difficult to meet the market demand for large-capacity lithium-ion batteries. At present, carbon-silicon anode materials have not been applied in a large scale, and the development of silicon-based anode technology of most manufacturers is still in the conceptual stage. However, from a long-term perspective, new technologies such as silicon-based anode with higher gram capacity are worthy of attention.

(3) Diaphragm and electrolyte: The era of solid-state batteries is far from over, and there is still the last journey of demand.

It is difficult for solid-state batteries to have an impact on the diaphragm and electrolyte market in a short period of time.In the current lithium battery technology path, liquid lithium ion batteries occupy the mainstream. Among them, separator and electrolyte are the key materials of lithium-ion battery. The performance of separator determines the interface structure and internal resistance of the battery, which directly affects the capacity, cycle and safety performance of the battery. The separator with excellent performance is of great use to improve the comprehensive performance of the battery. Electrolyte, as an important medium to ensure that the working ions move at a certain rate between the positive and negative electrodes during the charging and discharging process of the battery, thus forming the whole circuit loop to generate current, also has great influence on the overall operation efficiency and safety of the lithium battery. However, from the technical point of view, the path of solid-state battery is likely to have an impact on liquid lithium-ion battery in the future. The cathode materials used by the two are the same as the cathode materials, and the working principle of the battery is basically the same. However, the liquid lithium-ion battery uses liquid electrolyte, while the solid-state battery is replaced by solid polymer electrolyte, which can play the role of electrolyte and diaphragm at the same time, so electrolyte and diaphragm are no longer needed in the real solid-state battery. Compared with traditional liquid batteries, solid-state batteries have certain advantages in safety performance and energy density. If this technical path is fully realized, it will replace the existing diaphragm and electrolyte market. However, judging from the current development status of solid-state batteries, the technical concept is greater than practical and the production cost is too high. In recent years, it is difficult for solid-state batteries to become the mainstream technical solution in the market, and it is difficult for solid-state batteries to have an impact on the diaphragm and electrolyte market in the short term.

With the high nickel ternary lithium battery path, wet diaphragm manufacturers are expected to usher in a second growth.Lithium battery separators are generally divided into dry process and wet process according to the process. Dry diaphragm is a method to produce high-oriented polypropylene or polyethylene film with low crystallinity by producing hard elastic fiber, and a film with high crystallinity is obtained during high-temperature annealing. Wet diaphragm is to mix liquid hydrocarbon or some small molecular substances with polyolefin resin, heat and melt to form a uniform mixture, then cool down for phase separation, press to obtain a diaphragm, then heat the diaphragm to a temperature close to the melting point, stretch it in two directions to orient the molecular chain, and finally keep the temperature for a certain period of time, and elute the residual solvent with volatile substances, so as to prepare interconnected microporous membrane materials. In terms of physical and mechanical properties, the separator produced by dry uniaxial stretching process has more advantages, but the separator produced by wet production process has higher porosity and good permeability, which can meet the requirements of high current charging and discharging of power batteries and has better performance. At present, most lithium iron phosphate batteries in power batteries use dry separators, while most ternary lithium batteries use wet separators. At present, the demand for wet separators caused by the increase in installed capacity of ternary batteries is increasing, and Ferrous lithium phosphate is upgrading. High-end lithium iron phosphate batteries have a tendency to switch from dry separators to wet separators. Generally speaking, wet separators with relatively good performance will more likely become the mainstream technology path.

The difference of electrolyte products is small, and the competitiveness of manufacturers mainly lies in the bargaining power brought by market share and industrial chain monopoly.As the "blood of lithium battery", electrolyte is used to conduct electrons between the anode and cathode in the battery, which is an important guarantee for lithium-ion batteries to obtain high voltage and high specific energy. According to the data disclosed by Yingcai magazine, according to the cost ratio, the solvent accounts for about 30%, the lithium salt accounts for about 40-50%, and the additive accounts for about 10-30%, among which the solute and solvent costs account for a large part, resulting in a small difference in electrolyte products among manufacturers. Head manufacturers cooperate with many upstream electrolyte manufacturers to ensure the stability of raw material procurement demand. Under the competitive pattern of electrolyte industry with highly concentrated market share, The competitiveness of manufacturers mainly lies in the bargaining power brought by market share and industrial chain monopoly. Head and large suppliers can obtain good business environment and profitability for a long time under the condition of good market prosperity.

Fundamentals run before valuation, and in the pre-solid-state battery era, the market share is large.From a fundamental point of view, the upstream diaphragm electrolyte grew strongly. The GAGR of Enjie, Xingyuan Material, Tianci Material and Xinzhoubang were 66.5%, 4.2%, 315.4% and 90.4% respectively, corresponding to the PE(TTM) increase of -9.4%,-36.3%, -22.7% and-38.7% respectively. Based on the current development status of solid-state batteries, the technical concept is more than practical, and the production cost is too high. In recent years, it is difficult for solid-state batteries to become the mainstream technical solution in the market. In the short term, it is difficult for solid-state batteries to have an impact on the diaphragm and electrolyte market, and attention should be paid to leading upstream manufacturers with large market share.

(1) Hydrogen fuel cell: the market has not moved, the policy moves first, and it runs with electric technology.

The series connection of fuel cell and motor is the core of realizing hydrogen energy power for automobile.Fuel cell is an energy conversion device, which directly converts chemical energy stored in fuel (i.e. hydrogen) and oxidant into electric energy according to the working principle of primary battery. Through the cooperation of hydrogen fuel cell and motor, the automobile can be replenished with hydrogen and converted into electric energy to drive the automobile motor, thus realizing the energy conversion. Compared with the traditional electric vehicle, the fuel cell technology enables the vehicle to retain the advantages of good driving performance and comfortable ride, and also has unparalleled advantages such as fast energy replenishment and long cruising range, which takes into account the advantages of both electric vehicles and traditional power vehicles to some extent.

PEMFC benefits from the hydrogen car market, and its installed capacity occupies a dominant position in all kinds of batteries.Proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) refers to a fuel cell solution with platinum-based electrodes using water-based acidic polymer membrane as its electrolyte. PEMFC battery can operate at relatively low temperature and can customize the electrical output to meet the dynamic power demand, so it is the most commonly used battery solution for fuel cell vehicles. Its main advantages are obvious: fast start-up of power generation reaction, low requirements for operating conditions (no need for extreme high temperature), and direct use of air as oxidant (no need to add pure oxygen separately). According to "Review of Fuel Cell Industry 2020" published by E4tech, a website of ERM Group, the installed capacity of various fuel cells in the world will reach 1,318.7 MW in 2020. Among them, PEMFC, DMFC, PAFC, SOFC, MCFC and AFC have market shares of 1029.7, 0.4, 132.2, 147.5, 8.8 and 0.1 respectively, and the corresponding market shares are 78.1%, 0.1%, 10.0%, 11.2% and 0.7% respectively. Among them, PEMFC benefited from the hydrogen car market, accounting for 78.1% of the installed capacity market, and rapidly increased from 341.0 MW in 2016 to 1029.7 MW in 2020.

Domestic fuel cell shipments have increased rapidly, but the overall scale of the fuel cell market is not large due to the small demand for hydrogen energy vehicles.According to the statistical data of monthly database of fuel cell vehicles published by GGII, the installed capacity of hydrogen fuel cell system in China is about 79.2MW in 2020, down 37% year-on-year. Among them, the total installed capacity of hydrogen fuel cell system on buses is about 71.7MW, up 46% year-on-year. At present, the top five domestic fuel cell manufacturers in China are Edelman, Yihuatong, Guohong Remodeling, Exploration Automobile and Weichai Power, respectively, accounting for 20.1%, 15.4%, 11.9%, 11.6% and 10.0% of the market share of shipments, while other manufacturers account for 31.0% of the market share.

Policy overweight, long-term perspective, hydrogen energy technology will be the first alternative path of electric energy.Hydrogen, as an energy source, reacts with oxygen in the air, which brings power to the automobile and only produces water vapor. It is the most ideal emission reduction technology, without worrying about the carbon dioxide emission from the downstream automobile engine to the upstream power generation process, and can better achieve the goals of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality. Therefore, in recent years, the technical path of hydrogen energy vehicles has been strongly supported by national policies. During the two sessions in 2019, hydrogen energy was written into the "Government Work Report" for the first time. Subsequently, the release of the demonstration application policy for fuel cell vehicles and the release of the development plan for the new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035) all injected impetus into the development of the hydrogen energy industry. In addition, in recent years, many provinces and cities have also issued the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" to promote the development of hydrogen energy industry. On the whole, hydrogen energy technology will be the first alternative path of electric energy in the future. With the encouragement of policies, the pace of hydrogen energy industrialization is expected to accelerate.

(2) Skateboard chassis: "Four-wheel drive" chassis integration technology is expected to redefine the car.

Skateboard chassis is born out of non-load-bearing body technology, and the car is redefined as "car = chassis+shell", which promotes the computerization of electric vehicle manufacturing.Rivian, recently led by Amazon and Ford, has received extensive attention in the US stock market. After listing, its market value is close to 100 billion US dollars, and it has become the third largest car company in the world after Tesla and Toyota without selling a car. Rivian’s concern mainly comes from its new chassis form-namely "skateboard chassis" technology, which is expected to redefine the car. Skateboard chassis is born out of non-load-bearing body technology, which is a general chassis scheme that can reduce the burden of vehicle development. The main engine factory only needs to make the upper body part, and the lower body part can be stretched into the required adaptive layout by using the characteristics of free adjustment of skateboard chassis, so as to realize "car = chassis+car shell", that is, skateboard chassis manufacturers such as Rivian and Pixmoving integrate all components such as motor, battery, transmission system, electronic control system and suspension system into skateboards. If the skateboard chassis technology is popularized, in the future, the main engine factory will not focus on the development of automobile mechanical properties, but turn to software development and overall product design to promote the computerization of electric vehicle manufacturing technology.

The technical barrier of skateboard chassis is not high, but it is high in market barriers, so we pay attention to the domestic head electric main engine factory.On the one hand, the underlying technology of skateboard chassis is not complicated, mainly because of the integration of battery, motor, electronic control and traditional mechanical parts, and the technical barriers are not high. But on the other hand, contracting the chassis and electrical machinery system of the main engine plant is equivalent to grabbing the profit share from the main engine plant, which is higher in market barriers. Therefore, the skateboard chassis technology will be initiated by BYD and other head electric vehicle main engine plants with battery and electronic control system manufacturing technology in China.

Part III: Prospect.

China’s auto market still has a long-term growth potential under the background of double domestic demand.With the improvement of GDP per capita, the total size of China automobile market will still have some room for development in theory by 2035. As a kind of high-priced consumer goods directly linked to per capita income level and marginal propensity to consume, automobile industry prosperity is highly related to national economic operation. On the premise that infrastructure construction and automobile purchase policy are at the same level, passenger car sales and per capita GDP show a highly positive correlation. According to the data of the World Bank and the International Automobile Manufacturers Association (OICA), we can make a regression analysis on the number of vehicles purchased per capita in the top 20 automobile consuming countries in the world in 2019 and the per capita GDP of each country. There is a strong linear relationship between them, which can be approximately regarded as a positive proportion relationship.

According to Professor Lin Yifu of Peking University, China’s per capita GDP will reach 23,000 US dollars in 2035, so the most optimistic estimate is that there is still about twice the space in China’s automobile market.Adopting a relatively conservative estimation method, we take the per capita GDP of 20,000 US dollars as the expected value of per capita GDP in 2035. If other factors are not considered, the per capita GDP of China will still double by 2035, based on the sales of 25 million passenger cars in 2020. Therefore, in this way, under the most optimistic and ideal conditions, China’s passenger car consumption market will have the potential of 50 million cars per year in 2035. However, this growth space is only a theoretical possibility, and many factors such as purchase restriction, urbanization and infrastructure construction remain to be seen. As some large and medium-sized cities show no signs of greatly relaxing the purchase restriction policy, and the urbanization expansion is gradually slowing down, it is highly probable that the automobile consumption will increase slowly at a slower rate than the economic growth rate in the long run. Therefore, the double growth space of annual automobile sales and the consumption potential of 50 million vehicles can only be regarded as the theoretical limit of the China market by 2035.

According to the road map analysis of industrial planning, the new energy market will account for 50% in 2035, and the annual sales scale of new energy vehicles such as hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric and hydrogen fuel cells will reach 10 million.According to the contents of the Technical Roadmap of Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles compiled by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in October 2020 and organized by the China Automotive Engineering Society, by 2035, China’s new energy vehicle market will account for more than 50%, energy-saving vehicles will be fully hybrid, and the automobile industry will be electrified. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 (January-October) was 2.31%, 4.45%, 4.95%, 5.96% and 14.23% respectively. In August, September and October of 2021, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 19.78%, 19.47% and 18.24% respectively. Taking the data of 2019 before the epidemic as the seasonal fluctuation benchmark, we predict that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2021 is expected to exceed 2.8 million, corresponding to a market share of about 14.8%, and the market share will expand by about three times if the target is 50%. Cars are just like liquor industry, and new energy vehicles are just like sauce wine. The liquor industry peaks with the total amount, but the market share of sauce wine is rising continuously.

From the supply side, China’s passenger car market is now divided into three parts: traditional car companies, new car upstarts and new car-making forces.We divide the OEMs that participate in the China automobile market into three categories. First, traditional car companies, that is, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Toyota and other traditional car companies with a history of 100 years. At present, traditional car companies are facing various pressures such as technical upgrading and policy constraints, and are seeking electrification or hydrogen energy transformation based on their own years of car-making process accumulation. Second, the upstarts of automobiles, such as Xiaomi, Midea and Huawei, are big names in 3C and home appliances industries, and now they frequently enter the market to build cars. For example, Midea entered the upstream auto parts market in May, 2011. The newly-developed products cover five categories of products in three major systems: assisted (automatic) driving, thermal management and motor driving, including driving motors, electric compressors, electronic water pumps, electronic oil pumps, electronic power steering motors and other parts, and have been applied to the automobile industry of the bureau horizontally according to their own development endowments; Huawei entered the field of intelligent cockpit by building ——Huawei Inside, an in-vehicle system, and opened up its own 3C industrial ecological closed loop through the integration of Huawei HI with HarmonyOS OS operating system. Third, the new forces of car-making, namely, Weilai, Tucki and other emerging domestic and foreign electric vehicle manufacturers, have risen strongly through Internet-style product design.

Traditional car companies and new forces are merging with each other.On the one hand, the three forces have their own advantages, and now they have formed differentiated competition. On the other hand, traditional car companies and new car-making forces are merging with each other to learn from each other’s strengths. Because the new energy vehicle technology is quite different from the traditional fuel vehicle technology, the core technologies involved in the production of fuel vehicles, such as gearbox and engine, and the first-Mover advantage of traditional car companies in the new energy field no longer exist, the new forces of car-making and traditional car companies return to the same starting line, and competition stimulates their potential. In the long run, traditional fuel car companies should learn from the innovative spirit of new energy car-making forces, and new car-making forces should learn from the technical accumulation of traditional fuel car companies.

At present, the energy-saving technical route is relatively mature and easy to practice, but it still cannot completely solve the carbon emission problem.Automobile industry, as an important place of traditional fuel use, is the key direction to achieve the overall goal of carbon reduction in China. At present, there are three main technical paths for the automobile industry to achieve emission reduction: one is to produce more energy-efficient cars and directly reduce carbon emissions; The second is to achieve centralized management of carbon emissions through electric vehicles, and then manage power generation methods to achieve emission reduction; Third, hydrogen energy vehicles, through technological innovation to achieve theoretical absolute cleanliness. Each of the three methods has its own advantages and disadvantages.

Electric vehicles have become the mainstream in the three major technical paths, and China has the "curve advantage".First, electric vehicles can get rid of energy dependence. Today, China is the largest oil importer in the world, importing more than 400 million tons of crude oil every year, accounting for nearly 70% of China’s total oil consumption. However, electric technology only depends on power generation, and with the popularization of nuclear power and hydropower, the energy security problem will be alleviated; Second, China’s electric vehicle technology still has a "curve advantage", and now China has developed a relatively complete and high-tech new energy industry chain.

In the long-term perspective, the two paths of hydrogen energy and electric energy run together, and the winner of the technical path is king.Although hydrogen fuel cell is pollution-free and efficient, it is expensive and does not have practical conditions in low-end vehicles. In the short term, the hydrogen energy policy is overweight, and hydrogen energy technology will be the first alternative path of electric energy. With the encouragement of the policy, the pace of hydrogen energy industrialization is expected to accelerate, and the market’s expectations for future hydrogen energy application scenarios are more clear. But in the long run, promoting hydrogen energy at the national level is a "two-legged walk" behavior, and more attention should be paid to the correct technological path for investment.

The technical path dispute between lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary material battery has arisen again, but in fact, the user overlap between them is not high; Grade A00 uses lithium iron, which is ternary for middle and high-end vehicles.According to the loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary material battery in the first ten months of 2021, the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery has increased rapidly, once surpassing ternary material battery (the ratio of ternary material positive battery/Ferrous lithium phosphate positive battery installed capacity has dropped from 2.11 in the same period last year to 1.02 this year). However, this should not be understood as a competition of technical paths, and the overall overlap between lithium iron phosphate batteries and downstream users of ternary material batteries is not high. On the one hand, ternary material batteries have high energy density and high cost, and are suitable for middle and high-end vehicles with high horsepower and long battery life. Except for a few products (BYD blade batteries), most lithium iron phosphate batteries have low cost, low energy density and severe winter recession, and are suitable for entry-level and low-cost A00 or A0 vehicles. The two achieve differential competition, and the phenomenon that the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary material batteries is divided into two parts will continue in 2020.

The "double integration" policy includes NEV integration and CAFC integration, which correspond to two emission reduction paths respectively.Double points include new energy vehicle points (NEV points) and average fuel consumption points (CAFC points) of passenger car companies. Car companies can earn NEV points and CAFC points by producing new energy vehicles and fuel-efficient vehicles. If car companies fail to meet the assessment criteria, they can make up the points in three ways: carry-forward-car companies can use the points left in the previous year in proportion; Countervailing-the subsidiaries of the same group use the points of each other’s balance; Purchase-if the first two methods are not enough, you can only buy two kinds of points from other car companies on the "double points" trading website of the Equipment Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology every year. However, due to the imperfect trading mechanism and small trading market, the price of points is high.

It is suggested to promote the integration of "double points" trading and carbon trading as soon as possible, and tackle the emission reduction of the automobile industry.The automobile industry has always been an important place for energy conservation and emission reduction, and achieving the goal of "30 60" will surely tackle the problem. At present, the integral transaction between car companies is directional one-to-one transaction, and the information asymmetry is serious, so the market efficiency is low, which leads to the failure of price signals; At the same time, because carbon emissions are materialized into points, the circulation range is framed between car companies, which limits the liquidity of points to a great extent and also limits the effectiveness of the market. Therefore, we should try to promote the integration of "double points" trading and carbon trading, solve the problem of market effectiveness, and promote the automobile industry to complete the revolutionary transformation of energy by market means.

From the perspective of market concentration, the waist competition of the new energy automobile main engine plant is fierce, and the "double leading" pattern of the head is basically stable.In the first ten months of this year, the competition pattern of the main manufacturers of new energy vehicles (including electric and plug-in hybrids) was more than two-the "double-leading" BYD (with a total sales of 410,801 vehicles, including BYD Tang DM, BYD Han EV, BYD Qin PLUS DM, etc.) and Tesla (with a total sales of 349,397 vehicles, The main Model S include Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X, etc.), SAIC-GM-Wuling (341,757 vehicles, the main model is Wuling Hongguang Mini EV) and Great Wall Motor (97,966 vehicles, the main model is Euler Cat). In 2019, 2020 and January-October 2021, the automobile sales volume CR5 of new energy vehicle enterprises was 59.5% respectively. The shock of this market concentration should be seen in two aspects. On the one hand, the "double leading" pattern of Tesla and BYD’s new energy vehicle enterprises is basically established, and their respective consumer markets and shares are basically stable; On the other hand, the competition among non-head manufacturers is fierce. The products of Wuling and Great Wall are all low-priced models such as Mini EV, Euler Black Cat and Euler Good Cat. The market share is greatly affected by the product strength and price of a single product, so the market share of a single car company is not stable. On the whole, the waist competition of the main engine factory is fierce, and the head "double leading" grid is basically stable, and this trend is expected to continue in the next few years.

Although there is still a large market growth space for new energy vehicles and power lithium battery tracks in the long term, it is still worthy of attention whether the added value of the industry matches the valuation growth in the short and medium term.From a long-term perspective of five or even ten years, there are three ways for the industrial chain of new energy vehicles and power lithium batteries to continue to expand their market share: first, to expand the total automobile market, but according to analysis, although the marginal recovery in the short term, it is unlikely that the automobile market will explode; The second is to expand the proportion of new energy vehicles in the total number of vehicles. Now this situation is happening, which is the only increment of new energy vehicles and power lithium battery tracks; Third, the market share of battery manufacturers’ installed capacity has increased, that is, it is difficult to have a trend change in the short term by continuing to strengthen the monopoly position of head manufacturers. In the short and medium term, the possibility of exponential growth of triple factors of new energy vehicles and power lithium battery track has been weakened, so we should be alert to the valuation risk in the short term. Whether the added value of the industry matches the valuation growth is still worth discussing. In the short and medium term, the technology growth track, especially the industries and tracks such as new energy vehicles and power batteries, has accumulated a lot of gains. The track has been relatively crowded, and the historical valuation water level of many companies is close to 80% or even more than 90%. Once the internal liquidity is not too loose and the external liquidity is slightly tightened, there may be a valuation market, and the risk is very worthy of attention.

The upstream of the new energy industry chain, especially the electrolyte and diaphragm track, is close to the end of the first curve. Although the demand still has the last journey, we should always pay attention to the technology path switching.Taking anode materials as an example, graphite is the most common and cost-effective anode material at present. However, compared with graphite anode materials, silicon-carbon anode materials have ultra-high theoretical specific capacity and lower lithium-removal potential. Under the background of increasing requirements for energy density of lithium-ion batteries and the gradual maturity of battery manufacturers in mastering high-nickel systems, upgrading graphite anode systems to silicon-based anode systems is likely to become the main direction. At present, the technical level of upstream electrode materials and electrolyte products is close to the end of the first curve. Although the demand is still in the final stage, the emergence of emerging technologies such as solid-state batteries is likely to have a devastating impact on the corresponding track and target. Investment should always pay attention to technology path switching.

First, the logic of industry valuation has changed from "cycle" to "big consumption" and "big technology".The biggest change in the automobile industry since last year is the change in valuation logic. On the one hand, the traditional "manufacturing" valuation logic of automobile enterprises has changed into "consumption" logic, and the valuation center has a positive correlation with automobile sales, and high market share brings high profit growth expectations; On the other hand, the valuation of some new car upstarts and new car-making power companies presents "scientific and technological" logic, and auto companies with high technical barriers and good product experience can get higher valuations.

Second, the second half of the energy revolution has arrived, and the development path of the automobile industry is very different.Under the pressure of climate problems, countries all over the world are relying on their own technological resources to carry out different technological path research and development. Common new energy power technologies include hybrid, plug-in hybrid, extended-range electric, pure electric and hydrogen fuel cell. China enterprises have more successful products in many fields and remain in the leading position, but only lag behind in hydrogen energy technology. Nowadays, there is still a big controversy about the two development paths of pure electric power and hydrogen energy power. Now we are also at the crossroads of energy technology development. Apple won and Nokia lost.

Third, the infrastructure revolution is coming, which will bring new opportunities for the development of the automobile industry.In 2020, the "new infrastructure" will be accelerated, and the digital upgrading of traditional industries will usher in new development opportunities. In the "new infrastructure", 5G, big data, artificial intelligence, industrial internet, etc. have all become the focus of the next stage of development, which is of great significance to the construction of smart cars, smart transportation and smart city related facilities. The application of big data and industrial Internet technology will promote the transformation of the business model of the automobile industry, and by providing assistance for the digital development of manufacturing, the digital and intelligent manufacturing level of the automobile industry can be improved as a whole. The promotion of "new infrastructure" will accelerate the innovation speed in the fields of automobile technology research and development, business model and production model, and will bring subversive changes to the automobile industry.

Source of this article: If so, Institute of Finance, Author: Guan Qingyou, Xu Bonan, original title: "Guan Qingyou Team: Outlook of New Energy Automobile Industry in 2022"

　　Economic Daily-China Economic Net Wuzhen November 8 (Reporter Wang Wanying, Yang Xiufeng) The 5th world internet conference was held in Wuzhen, Zhejiang Province from November 7 to 9. The reporter came to the "Light of the Internet" Expo held in the same period and found many novel and interesting "black technologies". Let’s take a look with the reporter’s lens.

　　Meet another self

　　At this conference, there are many high-tech products that combine big data processing, face recognition and feature retrieval.

　　Finding someone who looks similar to himself in the vast sea of people is like looking for a needle in a haystack. On the Aauto Quicker booth, the reporter experienced the feeling of finding another self once. Standing in front of the camera, after counting down for 3 seconds, the photo he just took and a person who looks very similar to himself appeared on the left and right screens respectively. Wang Yuying/photo

　　Ignoring the eye of the city, it integrates advanced technologies of face recognition, portrait comparison, human body recognition and video structuring, and initially provides intelligent retrieval and upgrade for the public security video surveillance system. As long as the audience approaches the camera range, they can identify information such as gender and age. Wang Yuying/photo

　　"After identification, your voiceprint is 95% similar to the voice of Fu Cha Rong in Story of Yanxi Palace. Its voice is charming, and its person is gentle, supple and lovely." In the experience project of "voiceprint recognition" of Tongdun Technology Co., Ltd., the reporter tried to read a passage according to the prompt of the system. According to the recording, the system automatically analyzed the most matching degree between the reporter’s voiceprint and Fucha’s voice, and also analyzed the characteristics of the voice in detail. "Yang Xiufeng/photo

　　Standing in front of the "Changed Xiaowei" body fat detection machine, users can know how obese they are, which index exceeds the standard and how much it exceeds the standard through facial scanning and background big data calculation … … At the same time, this cool machine will make corresponding health analysis according to the measurement results, provide users with intuitive health risk assessment in time, and improve everyone’s attention to physical health. Yang Xiufeng/photo

　　Internet conference turns into "auto show" in seconds.

　　Automotive black technologies such as driverless cars and wireless charging cars have appeared in the Internet conference, which once made the audience mistakenly think that they came to the auto show.

　　This Baidu driverless car is the driverless car "Apollon" officially mass-produced at the second Baidu AI Developers Conference on July 4 this year. The reporter learned that the "Apollon" body is 4.3 meters long and 2 meters wide, with 8 seats and 14 people (including 6 stations). Using pure electric power system, the top speed can reach 120 kilometers per hour, and it can travel about 100 kilometers when fully charged. Wang Yuying/photo

　　BMW booth, a 5-Series plug-in hybrid vehicle supporting wireless charging, attracted the attention of many viewers. Just drive the car on the black wireless charging base, and you can start the charging mode immediately. During the charging process, you can also use the mobile App to remotely control and view the charging situation. According to BMW’s relevant personnel, "this should be the world’s first wireless charging vehicle, which can be filled in 4 hours." Wang Yuying/photo

　　Intelligent walkers’ unmanned road sweeper "Woxiaobai" can realize intelligent functions such as automatic obstacle avoidance, autonomous tracking, fixed-point start and stop, and autonomous sweeping. Operators can monitor the unmanned road sweeper safely in the duty room. Wang Yuying/photo

　　Nezha Auto’s new concept new energy vehicle under Hezhong New Energy has a solid sense of design technology. Wang Yuying/photo

　　Remote transmission technology intelligent shopping cart "small follower", you can follow the "owner" to run. It is understood that each "minivan" can carry 30kg, which is widely used in delivery services such as baggage handling in high-speed railway station airport and supermarket shopping guide, and can also be independently charged by solar energy when used outdoors, saving energy and protecting the environment. Wang Yuying/photo

　　Online Education homework help demonstrated geography teaching through AR, and related contents such as meteorological phenomena, hydrological environment, universe and planets were displayed after the reality was enhanced, which was very interesting and shocking. Yang Xiufeng/photo

Editor’s Note: This article comes from WeChat WeChat official account’s "Blue Whale Muddy Water" (ID:hunwatermedia), which was published by 36Kr with authorization.

Interview and Writing | Gemee

Content Master Plan | Guo Nan

Live, live, live ……

In 2020, live broadcast seems to be a universal antidote to solve the problem of traffic growth and realization, especially under the impact of the epidemic, all walks of life are generally online or e-commerce.

We have seen more new forms of content consumption, such as Cloud Watch Exhibition, Cloud Music Festival and Yunbengdi. On the other hand, e-commerce live broadcast with fire by Taobao has also ushered in new growth, and content platforms including Aauto Quicker and Tik Tok have gradually increased the realization mode of live broadcast with goods.

After the e-commerce platform with stronger supply chain capability, transaction guarantee and performance ability has occupied a dominant position, live selling has actually solidified into an important shipping channel for the retail industry. After the market cultivation is completed, the fundamentals of both supply and demand sides are stable.

On April 1st, 2020, Luo Yonghao completed his first live broadcast with goods in Tik Tok, and the controversy naturally existed. However, for Luo Yonghao, if more Weibo can be marketed, the high-profile benefits naturally outweigh the hardships.

Sell former friends’ mobile phones, bow down and apologize to the brand, and try razors with goods. ……

No matter how the outside world looks at it, the middle-aged online celebrity’s "re-starting a business" is obviously smoother than before, and he must have more confidence to pay off his debts.

On the same night of Lao Luo’s live broadcast, Viya sold a rocket with a price of 40 million yuan in the Taobao live broadcast room, and Simba’s apprentice "Dan Dan Xiao Pen You" sold a total of 2.78 million items in Aauto Quicker live broadcast, with a total transaction amount exceeding 480 million yuan.

Zhu Guangquan, the host of CCTV, and Li Jiaqi, the anchor of Taobao, partnered with "Xiao Zhu Pei Qi" to bring more than 40 million yuan to Hubei public welfare.

The head anchor is in the limelight, and there are naturally more and more businesses, anchors and MCN institutions that yearn to bring millions of goods once.

Zhaopin’s "Talent Report of Live Broadcasting Industry in Spring 2020" shows that the recruitment demand of live broadcasting industry increased by 132% year-on-year after the Spring Festival. The average monthly salary of Taobao live talent reached 9845 yuan.

In the economic era of online celebrity, e-commerce is an important way to realize cash. It is a natural thing to do some business with influence:

In the general trend, live broadcast will become the standard of e-commerce platform, and content platform will be the standard of e-commerce.　

After the "live broadcast fever" faded and the bottleneck of e-commerce growth, the e-commerce platform tried to drive traffic and revenue growth through live broadcast. This is a change from "live broadcast yearning for e-commerce" to "e-commerce yearning for live broadcast".

The problem is that e-commerce is a typical re-investment model, and the industrial chain involved is far more complicated than opening a Taobao store. Where will this platform and MCN continue to increase the live broadcast competition?

This paper will discuss the following issues:

"Either time for traffic or money for traffic."

An e-commerce anchor once introduced his own experience in this way. The platform allocated traffic to the live broadcast room, which can easily open the difference between the viewing volume and sales of the same anchor by ten times.

Pure e-commerce live broadcast actually lacks a fan base, and the traffic distribution on the platform side has a great influence, so online celebrity with its own traffic becomes a natural choice. Deepening cooperation with merchants and brands has also become another value export that MCN has found after content marketing.

Back to the live broadcast room, the core competitiveness of the anchor comes from two aspects, one is that the price is favorable enough, and the other is the professionalism of product selection and promotion.

Among them, the price comparison is dominant and the product selection is invisible. The former is directly related to the instant conversion rate of the live broadcast room, while the latter affects the consumer evaluation, repurchase and even the return rate.

According to the Online Survey Report on Consumer Satisfaction of Live E-commerce Shopping released by China Consumers Association on March 31st, the top four reasons why watching live broadcast turned into shopping were high cost performance (60.1%), favorite products (56.0%), price concessions (53.9%) and limited time concessions (43.8%).

Generally speaking, the main reason to attract consumers to decide to shop is the cost performance and price concessions of the goods themselves.

Among them, 37.3% of the consumers interviewed have encountered consumption problems in live shopping, and consumers’ false propaganda and concerns about the source of goods are relatively prominent.

E-commerce live broadcast is still a form of social promotion, and each live broadcast room can be regarded as a small promotion festival.

The common problems of e-commerce and promotion will also appear intensively on e-commerce live broadcast, such as high return rate and after-sales problems.

Wei Zhe, founder of Jiayu Fund and former president of Alibaba B2B, once said that taking clothing as an example, the return rate of clothing in traditional stores will not exceed 3%, but the return rate of e-commerce is as high as 30%. The return rate of this kind of shopping festival in double 11, and the return rate of live broadcast goods in Li Jiaqi and Viya are far greater than this ratio.

Promotion is actually a kind of centralized shipment. The so-called concentration lies in the concentration of different elements such as time, channel, category, brand and form, which is particularly obvious in Taobao live broadcast:

With the "Matthew effect" in the field of e-commerce live broadcast becoming more and more obvious, the channel value is constantly increasing, and the bargaining power of anchors has also changed. The anchors not only attract users with the "lowest price in the whole network", but also divide the hierarchy by pit fees and commission rates.

There are also some hidden worries about the direct users of consumer goods. For consumers, shopping is the content of life; For merchants, selling goods is a commercial activity; What consumers need is high quality and affordable, and businesses pay more attention to the efficiency of selling goods.

In this scenario, the demands of the two parties have come to a "hard landing" contact after eliminating the traditional "buffer" of contact between supply chain channels, dealer platforms and branded advertisements.

Therefore, most e-commerce live broadcast categories have very serious double-end appeal mismatch, and it is easy to achieve high sales and high volume in the short term, but the long-term cost of mismatch is the loss of brand value and consumer enthusiasm.

On the other hand, the gameplay of low-cost logic itself is limited.

Sunsink e-commerce represented by Pinduoduo and C2M e-commerce represented by Taobao Special Edition are also attracting price-sensitive consumers with replicable and higher efficiency by increasing subsidies and directly connecting factories.

Back in the live broadcast of e-commerce, the merchants who try to "make quick money" by bringing goods through online celebrity have no branding strategy, but can only constantly seek the purchase and transformation of traffic, and the traffic can even be called "lost volume".

It is inevitable that the industry’s general ROI will decrease. At that time, where will the e-commerce live broadcast go?

The key to channel price lies in the right to speak.

"Bringing users to make businesses", e-commerce live broadcast has raised the right to speak of the head anchor (organization) to a very high level. The anchor should give consideration to providing consumers with "low-priced" goods and the growth of its own income, which will inevitably squeeze the surplus of producers, that is, the profits of merchants and brands.

If the merchant’s profit from shipping through the anchor is lower than the commission fee, he will have to face the choice of whether to lose money to buy exposure.

According to the First Financial Report, the person in charge of Puxi E-commerce revealed that the link fee of Li Jiaqi "double 11" was 150,000 that day, accounting for 20%, and they lost three times in cooperation with Li Jiaqi for five times, and even lost 500,000 on the day of Double Eleven.

Only a few big brands can afford to spend money to change the volume of sound, and it does not constitute a long-term strategy.

Luo Yonghao’s statement that "live e-commerce is not a zero-sum game" is a problem that needs to be inferred again.

"The lowest price of the whole network" can be regarded as an alternative "wholesale" (not completely equivalent). The price is determined by supply and demand, while the formation of "wholesale price" is often determined by the game between manufacturers and distributors. Distributors guarantee the shipment volume, thus sharing the risks of manufacturers and reducing the marginal costs of manufacturers, which is the embodiment of channel value.

In traditional retail, "circulation is cost"-goods generally pass through secondary and tertiary wholesalers (distributors) and then to the final terminal retailer, and the intermediate price increase is easy to exceed 50%, or even multiple price increase;

In e-commerce (online retail), "channel is cost"-goods can reach consumers directly from the first-class warehouse, in which the e-commerce platform is drawn and the operating cost of e-commerce still exists, but the agglomeration effect, channel efficiency and price of e-commerce still have advantages compared with traditional retail;

The general e-commerce live broadcast is based on e-commerce, and the channel of live broadcast is continued. When the shipment volume of the live broadcast room is large enough to still cover the marginal cost of goods under the condition of "the lowest price in the whole network", the merchant is profitable.

From the perspective of game theory, "zero-sum game" is not a result for e-commerce live broadcast, but a trend. To understand with Krugman’s "impossible trinity", it is unrealistic to maintain a long-term balance among merchant benefits, anchor/platform benefits and consumer welfare.

In the link of live broadcast with goods, the beneficiaries of merchants’ profits include platforms, institutions, anchors and consumers, and the consumers have the lowest voice. Once the balance between channel efficiency and value is broken, the cost will eventually spread on consumers.

As a shipping channel, live delivery can only focus on pre-selection and product discount, and the anchor team’s binding force on merchants’ performance and after-sales in the later period of the transaction is actually not high.

There are not a few such things. The reason why Li Jiaqi’s "rollover" looks more is that he is the head, and these things happen during the live broadcast and are more easily seen by everyone on social media.

What needs special explanation is that, although there are many so-called phenomena of "county magistrate selling goods live" and farmers carrying goods live, in essence, both Taobao live and Aauto Quicker, Tik Tok and other platforms are based on the e-commerce model.

A very simple truth is that I sell specialty products live in the village head, not to sell to fellow villagers, but to complete the transaction with someone thousands of miles away through a mature e-commerce platform, channels and after-sales system.

Therefore, what the live broadcast needs to measure is whether it can further improve the operational efficiency in the traditional e-commerce model, rather than comparing it with the traditional offline store operation.

Even from the retail point of view, there is a big difference between online and offline sales and consumption. Many business behaviors that changed from offline to online during the epidemic will eventually return to the original track.

Clean out treasure to train, taobao guest, Beijing Zhuntong, etc., as well as brushing and grading (although they are gray products), are all common buying methods. Live delivery is not only a new form of e-commerce agency operation, but also has the function of "buying quantity".

In addition to "small profits but quick turnover", many merchants and brands can also accept "trading at a loss". In this case, more consideration is given to exposure and brand awareness. Fast and large-scale shipment through live broadcast will also help some new products and stores to improve the recommendation weight of e-commerce platforms.

After the rise of e-commerce, in the process of many traditional brands transforming into online channels, there has been a demand for e-commerce to operate on their behalf. In the traditional e-commerce agency operation, how to balance online and offline business is also critical, such as whether online and offline are the same? Is the same paragraph the same price and homogeneity?

For the retail industry, it is a delicate job to maintain the balance of the price system of each channel. After the popularization of e-commerce, all goods can be compared, but "price is not everything", which ultimately determines consumers’ buying behavior, and it is the common effect of different reasons such as differences in consumer goods, urgency and cultural additional attributes.

On the night of the first broadcast in Tik Tok, Luo Yonghao, e-commerce and price comparison platforms launched special zones such as "Lao Luo Live with the same paragraph" and "Lower than Lao Luo". The "lowest price of the whole network" itself is a comparative discount rather than an absolute discount, and the enthusiasm is obvious.

However, it also reflects a problem that has not been solved by live e-commerce. Will the preferential price of live broadcast have an impact on the price system of manufacturers and brands?

On the industrial side, the regular price (price tag) of standardized brands is generally the actual selling price (often seasonal), in addition to discount prices, promotional prices, activity prices, and hook products (special prices).

The regular prices of more commodities, especially those sold online, are generally confusing. For example, in Luckin Coffee, the regular prices and competing products are all against Starbucks, and after 1.8 and 3.8 discounts, they are actually similar to convenience store coffee. So what gradient is Ruixing’s product itself?

From the consumer’s point of view, the only thing that can be evaluated in the end is the terminal channel price, that is, the difference of the "hand-to-hand price", and "where can the buyer have the seller’s essence" will not change.

Looking back at the e-commerce live broadcast, it is a common measure to give special prices to the goods in the live broadcast room through special channels. For many brands, they want to gain exposure and user growth through this "hook product", but there are also many merchants who are purely for the purpose of fast shipment.

Anson, who is engaged in digital marketing, provided a case. Before that, he met a customer of a traditional manufacturer who wanted to transform. They made a brand positioning plan and a launch plan for the customer and provided a set of digital marketing plans. But the customer said: "The brand is useless. Now online celebrity can sell it with goods."

"You don’t need to be a brand, it’s good to be able to sell goods." Many merchants who blindly enter the live broadcast with goods may think so, but without a brand, there will be no premium, and the profit of bringing goods to online celebrity will not go up.

Merchants want to choose anchors, and anchors are also picking brands and goods. The first-line brands have lower commissions, which is also a manifestation of brand premium.

Anson’s customer has his own factory, which does processing for some high-end brands in Europe and America, so he doesn’t understand "why can’t you take it easy and not make a brand?"

There is a saying that live broadcast is a "what you see is what you get" mode. Is this good for the brand?

From the perspective of exposure and brand, the effectiveness of live broadcast also needs to be fully evaluated, and exposure has advantages and disadvantages. Whether in Li Jiaqi, Viya or Lao Luo, the "rollover" brand is often the most widely spread after the live broadcast.

From the perspective of branding, live broadcast is actually not as good as graphic and short video content. As a part of asset management, brand strategy should be a long-term strategy, and the immediacy of live broadcast is contrary to the long-term demand of brand.

For example, people often say "Ins with the same paragraph", "Little Red Book with the same paragraph" and "Tik Tok with the same paragraph". These contents (which are also commodities) can withstand the spread, consumption and reproduction, and finally form cultural and brand recognition. However, the instant nature of live broadcast makes it difficult for them to have the ability of "planting grass" with pictures, texts and short videos.

Of course, Li Jiaqi has also boosted L ‘Oreal, Guerlain and other brands, which is the embodiment of the anchor’s fit with commodities and brands, and is also directly related to the professional ability of the anchor team. The brand needs to spend money on the right anchor for a long time, and it is hard to say that this income is cost-effective.

Selling goods by live broadcast is not omnipotent. Finding a suitable platform, anchor and pricing can make profit from selling goods. Blind pursuit of "live broadcast effect" can’t do a good job in cost control and income evaluation, not necessarily making money, and it is likely to overturn.

On January 9th, 2020, Yujiahui, the parent company of "Royal Nifang", received an inquiry letter from the management department of the Growth Enterprise Market Company of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, asking about its cooperation mode and content with online celebrity anchor, and its influence on the company’s operating performance, and whether there was any situation of exaggerating the influence of cooperation with online celebrity.

Qingyan (Beauty Media) reported that on January 14th, Yujiahui issued an announcement in reply to the inquiry letter, saying that it cooperated with Li Jiaqi Live 47 times, Viya Live more than 30 times, and cooperated with more than 1,500 online celebrity anchors such as Kiki and Lieer Baby in Jie Chen, and the total number of live broadcasts exceeded 8,000.

In the first three quarters of 2018 and the first three quarters of 2019, the sales of products involved in online celebrity anchor cooperation accounted for 0.99% and 4.02% of the company’s operating income respectively.

Yujiahui said that more than 8,000 live broadcasts with goods have not yet constituted the main source of sales and have little impact on the company’s operating performance.

In addition, Yujiahui also announced the proportion of its promotion and sales in 2018 and January-September 2019. Yujiahui’s brand promotion expenses decreased significantly in January-September 2019, but the proportion of platform promotion service fees in sales expenses further increased to 38.51% (35.49% in 2018).

The platform promotion service fee in Yujiahui’s announcement is mainly the commission, technical service fee, promotion service fee or software service fee and rebate paid to the e-commerce platform or the brand promotion service, which shows that Yujiahui still has a high platform promotion expenditure.

The reason why Shenzhen Stock Exchange inquired about Yujiahui was that Yujiahui released the facts about the cooperation with online celebrity to investors, but did not explain the specific impact of the business on the company’s operation. In this regard, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange requires it to explain whether there are situations such as actively catering to market hotspots, speculating the company’s share price, and cooperating with shareholders to reduce their holdings.

It can be seen from the contents of Yujiahui’s announcement that it is a fact to cooperate with online celebrity, and it is also a fact that the level of cooperation with online celebrity is not low and the proportion of sales is not high.

Coincidentally, the storm of live broadcast with goods as an emerging concept in the capital market is not an isolated case.

On February 11th, Xiamen Sanwu Internet announced a major asset restructuring announcement, intending to acquire Shanghai Wanrui (Netstar DreamWorks), a MCN company with more than 700 online celebrity IPs and 500 million fans. At present, Shanghai Wanrui has also increased its investment in live broadcast.

After the announcement, the share price of Sanwu Interconnect continued to limit. Later, Sanwu Interconnect received two inquiries from Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and was asked to answer several major questions in the acquisition: whether the disclosure of the plan was prudent, whether there was insider trading, whether the actual controller had a reduction plan, the core competitiveness and going concern ability of the target company, etc.

In the second inquiry letter, the question about Shanghai Wanrui, the target company, is particularly acute:

Please disclose the statistical caliber of "more than 500 million fans", and whether there is "buying fans" and double counting the number of fans;

Please disclose more than 700 online celebrity, and list the number of small and medium-sized incubation online celebrity IP, big coffee online celebrity IP, and head online celebrity IP by classification;

Please disclose the integrated marketing case completed by the target company and the amount of the customer bill;

The Sanwu Internet responded to the inquiry letter of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and disclosed that Shanghai Haorui’s revenue in 2019 was 120 million; Among the 500 million fans, Weibo fans are 260 million, and the active fans of the company’s Weibo account account account only account for 12.61%, which is about 32.78 million.

Regarding the statistical caliber of "more than 500 million fans" in the inquiry letter, Shanghai Wanrui denied the situation of "buying fans" and admitted the problem of double counting. The double counting mainly includes that a fan pays attention to the same online celebrity on multiple platforms and multiple online celebrity IPS on the same platform are paid attention to by the same fan.

It is impossible to effectively count the data of fans. This problem is actually a common problem in the whole field of online marketing and MCN. Especially for the form of live delivery, which emphasizes the purchase and transformation, there is still a lack of transparency about the net value of customers brought by fans.

In recent years, online celebrity and MCN-related concept stocks have experienced capital speculation, and they are also faced with doubts about their business models in the capital market.

After Ruhan Holdings went public, although it is trying to cultivate new head celebrities, more than 50% of the company’s revenue is still created by Zhang Dayi alone; Mei ONE relies on Li Jiaqi, Qian Xun relies on Viya, and it is a common disease in the industry to rely on head talents.

After being inquired about the acquisition case, Sanwu Interconnect also received warning letters from Xiamen Securities Regulatory Commission to its controlling shareholder and actual controller, letters of concern from the Growth Enterprise Market of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and public condemnation of its controlling shareholder and chairman for alleged violations.

The process that Sanwu Internet wants to acquire Shanghai Wanrui will be difficult to smooth.

On the other hand, live delivery, which relies more on the trust relationship between anchors and fans, needs to cultivate a new business model with stable user base, and also needs to answer the question of industry standardization and large-scale growth.

As a form of e-commerce agency operation, live delivery should return to live delivery to measure its value.

As we said before, live broadcast is just a tool, and the field it builds depends on the existing identities of the recipients at both ends of the screen and the field characteristics of the live broadcast platform.

In the field of live broadcast with goods, anchors and consumers are the main recipients at both ends of this field. No matter whether the live broadcast room is poor, teasing dogs or talking cross talk, it will finally return to a series of problems such as product price, quality and after-sales.

So, how to understand the value of live broadcast as a tool?

Baharat Anand quoted Craig Mo Feite’s "Dumb Tube Paradox" in the fuse to discuss the pipeline role played by cable TV companies in the streaming media era. The image metaphor of "pipeline" can also be used to understand the value of live broadcast.

The paradox of "dumb tube" reveals the reality that American cable TV service providers, under the impact of the Internet, have abandoned their content lines and transformed into information infrastructure providers, and have also fundamentally changed their existence value in the digital age, so they will not be stifled by the rise of online media.

The domestic example is the communication service providers represented by the three major operators. Traditional communication services such as telephone and SMS have been increasingly replaced by network communication software, but as infrastructure providers, operators’ income has been increasing.

According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the growth rate of telecom business revenue still increased steadily from January to November in 2019, and the telecom business revenue totaled 1,203.9 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased steadily. Looking at the operators’ income again, the operating income of China Mobile in 2019 was 745.9 billion yuan, that of China Unicom in 2019 was 290.51 billion yuan, and that of China Telecom in 2019 was 375.734 billion yuan.

Correspondingly, Alibaba Group’s revenue in fiscal year 2019 (April 2018 to March 2019) was 376.844 billion yuan, and Tencent’s annual revenue in 2019 was 377.289 billion yuan.

Only from the perspective of revenue, the two giants of the Internet can add up to be comparable to an operator of China Mobile.

Even though many people have long lost the habit of texting, during the period from January to November 2019, the revenue of domestic mobile SMS business still reached 35.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%.

If Internet companies such as Tencent and Ali are cars, communication service providers are the way. This is the value of the pipeline, which is the embodiment of the "channel is king" in the communication industry.

For Internet platforms such as Taobao, Tik Tok and Aauto Quicker, the principle of pipeline value also applies.

What the platform needs to take into account is the growth of its entire traffic market. It is a very realistic stage growth strategy to encourage short videos when short videos are on fire and stimulate live broadcasts when live broadcasts are on fire.

As far as the field of live broadcast is concerned, an obvious problem is that although the platform side has said a lot to encourage the development of the industry and issued a lot of policies, it is still a few head anchors.

It is enough for the platform to stimulate the participation enthusiasm of the industry through the demonstration effect of the head anchor.

Another question worth thinking about is, will the platform really spare no effort to support live delivery?

The live e-commerce research report of China Merchants Securities pointed out that the essence of live e-commerce is the embodiment of the brand’s desire for private domain traffic. The research report also believes that live e-commerce reshapes the people’s goods yard: 1. People change from active consumption to passive consumption; 2, the goods go to middlemen, and the origin of the products is brought closer; 3. The function of "clairvoyance+clairvoyance" has become a reality.

In 2017, after Jack Ma put forward the concept of "new retail", Zhang Yong, then CEO of Alibaba, continued to interpret the new retail from the concept of "people, goods and fields", pointing out that the key is the reconstruction of all commercial elements and the efficiency improvement brought by element reconstruction.

In the following years, the theory of "people’s goods yard" continued to be widely used in the retail and consumption fields, such as social e-commerce, community group buying, fresh e-commerce and other fields, and even appeared in smart homes, e-cigarettes and other industries.

In the meantime, the theory of "people’s goods yard" has undergone obvious marketing conceptualization, from the relatively complex and macro level of new retail, to more vertical fields and industries, and even to a specific product and function, and at the same time, it emphasizes methodology and quick results.

It can realize a live broadcast of e-commerce with over 10 million goods and over 100 million goods, which seems to perfectly fit the efficiency improvement of the so-called "people and goods yard" reconstruction. However, can the considerable sales ability of an anchor and a live broadcast with goods really verify the "people’s freight yard" theory?

Looking back at the retail industry, there are still too many uncertainties about whether the scale, stability and controllable efficiency necessary for factor reconstruction can be popularized and verified in the industry for a long time:

As we mentioned above, the live broadcast has a head effect and goes further; For another example, even for the head MCN, the research report of China Merchants Securities also said that such institutions are currently small, and their business models and profitability have yet to be verified.

In recent years, whether it is new retail or social e-commerce, the mode innovation of the so-called "people’s goods yard" often falls on the innovation and change of consumption scenes.

In the evolution of consumption scenarios, we can use the concepts of online celebrity economy, sinking market and private domain in recent years to establish a simple analysis framework to further discuss the e-commerce live broadcast:

As we all know, Li Jiaqi was a BA (Beauty Consultant for Cosmetics Counter) of L ‘Oré al in his early years and won the sales champion. At the end of 2016, MCN Institutional Beauty ONE cooperated with L ‘Oré al Group in the Taobao live broadcast project of "BA online celebrity". After Li Jiaqi entered the competition, she signed Beauty ONE to become a beauty expert. Since then, she has accumulated a large number of fans in Taobao live broadcast. After selling lipstick with Jack Ma "PK" in double 11 in 2018, "Lipstick One Brother" has gradually come out of the circle.

Has Li Jiaqi proved the success of the project of "BA online celebrity"?

As of March 29, 2020, the Taobao list shows that the Taobao Live Talent Index ranks in the top 100, and the signing talents of US ONE are only Li Jiaqi and Hu Yueming _demi; In addition, as early as February 2018, Hu Yueming _demi’s Taobao fans reached 850,000. At present, she ranks 18th on the list of people with just over 1.15 million Taobao fans.

There are various accidental and inevitable factors for Li Jiaqi’s popularity. "BA online celebrity" is an opportunity for Li Jiaqi, but the project itself is far from success. It can even be said that Li Jiaqi is an accident of this project, and until now, US ONE still relies too much on Li Jiaqi.

The modest search of the first list of Taobao institutions reflects the other side of e-commerce live broadcast in the operation of Daren:

Although it is not as out of the circle as Li Jiaqi, Viya is still another peak in Taobao anchor, including the accumulation of long-term offline retail and online stores in Viya, and the help of institutionalized operation after the establishment of Qianxun.

In the same period, Taobao Live Talent Index ranked in the top 100, and 14 talents were Qianxun’s artists. Besides Viya, Qianxun was more active in signing talents, such as famous beauty bloggers such as late-night xu teacher and Zhang Mofan, and online celebrity.

Qianxun’s strategy of signing a top talent is in line with the natural trend of "BA-ization in online celebrity" after the outbreak of e-commerce live broadcast, that is, more and more online celebrity and stars with voice want to enter this industry.

This also reflects that MCN institutions such as Midea ONE, Qianxun, Ruhan and Worry-Free still can’t realize the vision of "cultivating online celebrity in batches". In terms of the incubation and liquidity of online celebrity, MCN institutions have hardly changed or improved in recent years.

MCN itself has become a outlet by outlet. Whether it is a content production organization or a service provider with content marketing as its core is a "strange circle" that MCN has not walked out of.

When it comes to online celebrity, Aauto Quicker and Tik Tok, as important platforms for live broadcast of goods in online celebrity, have obvious differences from Taobao live broadcast.

According to the data of China Merchants Securities, the daily average transaction volume of live broadcast goods in Aauto Quicker in 2019 is 100 million, and it is expected to be 40-50 billion for the whole year; Everbright Securities predicts that the narrow-caliber transaction scale of Aauto Quicker live broadcast will be 25 billion (the transaction scale within the platform) and 150 billion (the transaction scale led by the anchor to WeChat).

The limelight of Aauto Quicker live broadcast is not so much the emergence of "e-commerce live broadcast" as the exposure of Aauto Quicker live broadcast itself.

Aauto Quicker’s long-term accumulation of users in the sinking market, anchor trust foundation and live broadcast selling habits are the basis for Aauto Quicker to become the second platform for live broadcast.

As for the sinking market, we have said in previous reports that the "Internet going to the countryside" represented by the sinking market is actually a continuation of the "information equality" movement, and the greatest significance lies in the reconstruction of information elements. Third-and fourth-tier cities, small towns and vast rural markets are related to more intertwined channels, interpersonal patterns and differences in consumption concepts, but they are fundamentally urbanization problems.

From the perspective of urbanization, the sinking market and private domain are actually highly compatible:

Due to the more thorough transformation of commercial culture, cities have typical characteristics of consistent consumer culture, such as consumer brands such as Haidilao and Xicha, and commercial real estate brands such as Vanke Center and wanda plaza, which are very popular in first-and second-tier cities, and even in some third-and fourth-tier cities.

In small towns, rural areas and other areas, the more traditional business model is still very competitive. Even online car rental and take-out services with prominent Internet platform may not compete with local car rental and take-out services in these areas. As for the differences of consumer brands, from the early store sinking strategy of vivo and OPPO, the traditional dealer stores such as VIP Bird and Elcon operated in franchise mode, and the brand recognition in the sinking market was also high.

Another example is that some special fields and specialized services are based on the different needs of different markets, which is the embodiment of the "ten miles of different sounds" in the consumer field.

To put it simply, the difference in lifestyle between first-line and second-line residents is far less than that between county towns and rural areas. Urban culture is consistent, so online celebrity stores can be opened all over the country; Sinking market, city, town and village, each level is a layer, and consumer goods are very different.

The popularity of the term "sinking market" appeared around the time of listing in Pinduoduo, and the term "sinking big three" also appeared. By the end of 2019, the saying of sinking the market was more replaced by private domain.

Because the whole sinking market, in fact, is a collection of countless small private areas, with the characteristics of mutual connection and division. There is a sinking market, but the sinking market is not a big market.

In 2019, Aauto Quicker made great efforts to enter the first and second tier, and Tik Tok adopted a sinking strategy to break down the so-called "inside and outside the Five Rings" based on information services. The actual effect is actually drawing to a close.

Looking back at live delivery, the reason why "online celebrity BA" will become the mainstream is because online celebrity is a shortcut to private domain.

However, online celebrity’s popularity and consumer trust are based on long-term content and social maintenance, and it is not really possible to maintain a good popularity by bringing goods. The artistry of Li Jiaqi is also an example.

With regard to e-commerce live broadcast, the stakeholders, business model and retail reform involved are a very complicated and unsystematic issue. This article is not complete, and there are still many problems that have not been included, such as:

The following are some fragmented thoughts, but I think they have certain reference value:

1, whether Taobao or Tik Tok Aauto Quicker live broadcast with goods, can not break through their own platform positioning. It can be inferred that Aauto Quicker live delivery will encourage self-built and external e-commerce modes, and at the same time strengthen advertising share; Tik Tok’s short video marketing is stronger than live broadcast, and it is still an advertising growth strategy for a long time; Taobao live APP must rely on Taobao’s continuous diversion, and it is difficult to make a separate consumption platform, but it can be made into a tool.

2, Taobao data, about half of merchants have used Taobao live broadcast to sell goods. From an operational point of view, gradually improving the form of self-broadcast by merchants will become an important means to balance costs and operational growth.

In fact, whether it’s live broadcast of Taobao or live broadcast of other content platforms and brands, this kind of "de-online celebrity" live broadcast sales has become more common. From the point of view of employment, the sales model of shop assistants going to online celebrity is traditional BA online, and the ceiling is not very high, but it is sustainable.

In addition, don’t be too superstitious about the effect of live broadcast with goods. taobao guest, Taobao Alliance, Beijing Zhuntong, etc. still have good channel effects, and even lead WeChat and small programs to make deals. The key is cost control and comprehensive efficiency improvement.

3, based on the differences in urbanization, lifestyle and popular culture, the impact on the consumption field can not be ignored. Even in the city, since there are constantly business and brand innovations hidden, such as Modern China Tea Shop, which has not yet left Changsha. The birth and development of a new consumer brand should bring vitality to the consumer market and enrich our urban culture.

4. The efficiency of e-commerce live broadcast matching people’s freight yard should be evaluated on the basis of e-commerce. Many industries in the current epidemic stage are online, which is a last resort. We are still waiting for an opportunity to return to the offline consumption space, not for "retaliatory consumption" but for a more real life.

5, the low-cost strategy of e-commerce live broadcast is hidden in the connotation of promotion, so it is difficult to change. Platform-led low-cost, the other end is C2M, but it is difficult to get through the C2M model.

In the not-too-long history of retail development, "factory goods" often refer to "tail goods" (the sound of factory closure in Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province is still there). C2M still needs to be verified by consumer culture, which may lead to the differentiation of consumer groups and categories.

For example, clothing C2M is basically difficult to make, even if it is a basic model, different brands have their own connotations; Another example is Uniqlo’s stolen joint money. Consumption is not only a purchase, but also a kind of self-expression.

From this point of view, C2M may not be as good as OEM, ODM and OBM’s pseudo-factory model.

6, two fundamentals of consumer business, one is manufacturing, and the other is retail. The innovation of retail model is inseparable from the progress of manufacturing industry. Only a more efficient and benign development of manufacturing industry can bring real consumer surplus.

"Consumer surplus is an important indicator to measure consumer welfare."

References:

"The little red book of 250 million users began to broadcast live-e-commerce temptation? Or content anxiety? Blue Whale Muddy Water June 21, 2019

Farewell to 2010s, Past and Future of "Traffic Commerce" Blue Whale Muddy Water December 24, 2019

"Eleven Years Changed by double 11" Blue Whale Muddy Water November November 2019

China Merchants Securities: Live E-commerce Kill in Three Kingdoms, from "Cats Fighting Dogs" to "Cats Shaking Fast" China Merchants Securities 2020.01.05

"Li Jiaqi, Viya with goods in the end? Yujiahui handed over the answer to Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

Tik Tok is restricting online celebrity’s goods-carrying behavior, which is an inevitable choice. Internet and entertainment thieves group January 23, 2020.

　　March 19 news, according to many domestic media reports, Xiaomi President Lu Weibing said at the performance meeting on March 19 that Xiaomi will unswervingly promote high-end mobile phone business.

　　Especially in China market, Xiaomi mobile phone has broken through the price range of 4,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan and 5,000 yuan to 6,000 yuan. In 2024, Xiaomi mobile phone must break through the price range of 6,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan and take scale at this price.

　　Lu Weibing also pointed out that it is believed that the high-end of Xiaomi’s mobile phone overseas, especially in the European market, will reach a new level.

　　According to the official 2023 financial report, Xiaomi Group’s total revenue was 271 billion yuan, and its adjusted net profit was 19.3 billion yuan, up 126.3% year-on-year.

　　In terms of mobile phone business, Xiaomi’s domestic smartphone market share in the 4K-6K price segment reached 16.9% in 2023, up 9.2 percentage points year-on-year; Q4 The sales volume of smartphones in this price segment ranked first, and the market share increased to 28.2%.

　　Lu Weibing emphasized that Xiaomi’s smartphone market share in the Middle East, Latin America and Africa has increased, overseas high-end promotion has accelerated, and Xiaomi 14Ultra has been launched simultaneously around the world.

Unconsciously

The Spring Festival holiday is coming to an end.

While everyone is enjoying the holiday life.

Don’t forget.

February 18th is a working day.

According to the general office of the State Council.

Notice on Some Holiday Arrangements in 2024

The Spring Festival is on holiday from February 10th to 17th.

A total of 8 days

February 18th (Sunday)

Going to work!

Friends who usually set the working day alarm clock.

Don’t forget to set the alarm clock.

In case of being late

Original title: "Important notice! Working hours have changed.

Read the original text

　　At noon, the rain stopped, and after the traditional sacrifice and blessing activities, the New Year’s dinner was officially opened in the sound of firecrackers for 20 minutes. 260 tables filled with dishes and thousands of tourists crowded the 1,132-meter-long old street. More than 10 ancient town specialties such as sesame balls, three-in-one mixed incense and smoked tofu have opened thousands of tourists’ eyes. Laughter, cheers, shouts of punching and drinking … turned the ancient town upside down.

　　In yesterday’s old street, visitors with bowls and chopsticks could be seen everywhere. They shuttled between the tables, with a piece of pig’s head meat on this table and a piece of fish on that table. Yan Han, a photographer who rushed from the main city, simply put a pair of chopsticks in his camera bag, and when he met his favorite dish, he took out his chopsticks and took a bite. The residents of the old street are extremely hospitable. Whenever anyone passes by, they will warmly greet them: "Come, look at what you eat." They also invite guests to sit down, drink wine and chat at home. Diao Shukun, a 77-year-old resident of the ancient town, specially asked someone to write a couplet and stick it on the door, with the first couplet saying that "tea is not cold when people walk" and the second couplet saying that "the host and guest are always hot" and the second couplet saying "fragrant tea is good for water".

　　Cctv newsUnder the high pressure of policy, the property market continues to cool down. According to data released by real estate research institutions, the online signing volume of first-and second-tier cities such as Beijing declined in May. Among them, the number of second-hand housing contracts in Beijing in May hit a new low in 27 months. With the sharp decline in transaction volume, house prices are not so firm. Some real estate agencies even said that the second-hand housing prices in Tongzhou District and Yizhuang Development Zone in Beijing fell by 20%. Is it true?/You don’t say.

　　Market:The number of second-hand housing contracts hit a new low in 27 months.

　　It has been almost three months since this wave of the strictest property market regulation began in March this year. Under the impact of the combination of restricted purchases, restricted loans and restricted sales, the transaction volume of the property market in various places has declined in different degrees. Take Beijing and Guangzhou as examples:

　　Statistics from a large real estate agency show that the actual signing volume of the second-hand residential market in Beijing in May decreased by 34.2% compared with the same period in April, and the number of new customer registrations also decreased by 11.9% compared with the same period in April, and the market transaction activity has fallen to the bottom. As of May 30th, a total of 10,236 sets of second-hand houses were signed in Beijing in the month, and it is estimated that the number of second-hand houses signed in the whole month will be less than 11,000, which is the lowest value in the last 27 months.

　　In Guangzhou, the overall transaction volume of the property market in Guangzhou in May this year hit a new low in the past two years. As of May 29th, a total of 6,326 first-hand houses were sold in Guangzhou, which was the second lowest since May 2011, only higher than that in May 2014 (5,843).

　　Focus:The price increase in first-and second-tier cities has dropped.

　　The volume of transactions has fallen sharply. What is the trend of house prices?

　　According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, 30 cities saw their house price increase decline in April, 6 more than in March. According to preliminary estimates, the year-on-year increase in housing prices in first-tier cities fell for seven consecutive months, while the year-on-year increase in second-tier cities fell for five consecutive months. The data for May has not yet come out, but the situation is not expected to be better than that in April.

　　In terms of second-hand housing, the increase in house prices in most cities has dropped, and the price of second-hand housing in Beijing has stopped rising in April. And in May, according to a real estate agent statistics:

　　In May 2017, the average transaction price of second-hand houses in Beijing decreased by 2.4% compared with the same period in April.

　　Among the 12 regions with transactions, the average transaction price in 8 regions is falling, and the price in 4 regions is rising.

　　The biggest drop was in Tongzhou District and Yizhuang Development Zone, both of which exceeded 20%.

　　However, many Beijing buyers said that in terms of specific prices, there is still no obvious decline. In this regard, Li Wenjie, president of Beijing Real Estate Agency Association, said that the second-hand housing prices in Beijing have indeed dropped, but "down" means that compared with the high quotation of the owners listed this year, from the fourth quarter of last year to the end of the first quarter of this year, the second-hand housing prices are estimated to have increased by about 20%, so the current decline is still adjusted towards the level at the beginning of this year.

　　For example, in Tianjin, the news from the intermediary said that the price reduction of many communities ranged from 5% to 28%, with the highest drop of 28%. And from the current point of view, there is no sign of loosening the regulation of Tianjin property market.

　　In Shenzhen, since the introduction of a new round of control policies in Shenzhen last October, the transaction price of new commercial housing in Shenzhen has fallen for eight consecutive months. According to the data released by the Shenzhen Municipal Planning and Land Resources Committee on June 1, the average transaction price of new houses in Shenzhen in May was 54,512 yuan/square meter, down 0.2% from the previous month.

　　Trend:The property market is changing to a buyer’s market.

　　With a series of strict and strict regulation of the property market, the down payment and interest rate of loans for house purchase have both increased, and many buyers have suspended the pace of buying houses and are gradually turning from radicalism to wait and see, and the phenomenon of real estate speculation has been curbed. Experts said that at present, panic-grabbing houses, owner’s jumping prices and breaking contracts are basically gone, and the game relationship between buyers and sellers has gradually reversed and is changing to the buyer’s market.

　　According to industry insiders, in Beijing, the transaction volume of second-hand houses may be close to the bottom of the market. In terms of price, due to the excessive increase in the previous period, especially in some areas with double or multiple increases in the previous period, the decline may be further expanded.

　　Nationally, more than 30 cities, including Chengdu, Xiamen, Fuzhou, Qingdao, etc., have initiated the property market regulation policy of restricting the sale for a certain number of years after buying a house for the first time in history. It is widely predicted in the industry that with the continuation of regulatory policies, the overall housing prices in the country will be further adjusted back in the future. However, some insiders believe that the late trend of the property market still depends on the trend of credit interest rates and policy changes. If credit is loose, it does not rule out that house prices will continue to rise.

　　China Securities Network News (Reporter Confucius Yuan) China Petrochemical announced that the company recently received a reply from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, agreeing to the company’s registration application for issuing shares to a specific target. The plan of this issuance is to issue A shares in full to China Petrochemical Group, the controlling shareholder of the company, at the average transaction price of the company’s A shares in the 20 trading days before the pricing benchmark date. All the funds raised in this issuance will be invested in the project construction in the fields of clean energy and high value-added materials.