Cctv newsUnder the high pressure of policy, the property market continues to cool down. According to data released by real estate research institutions, the online signing volume of first-and second-tier cities such as Beijing declined in May. Among them, the number of second-hand housing contracts in Beijing in May hit a new low in 27 months. With the sharp decline in transaction volume, house prices are not so firm. Some real estate agencies even said that the second-hand housing prices in Tongzhou District and Yizhuang Development Zone in Beijing fell by 20%. Is it true?/You don’t say.

　　Market:The number of second-hand housing contracts hit a new low in 27 months.

　　It has been almost three months since this wave of the strictest property market regulation began in March this year. Under the impact of the combination of restricted purchases, restricted loans and restricted sales, the transaction volume of the property market in various places has declined in different degrees. Take Beijing and Guangzhou as examples:

　　Statistics from a large real estate agency show that the actual signing volume of the second-hand residential market in Beijing in May decreased by 34.2% compared with the same period in April, and the number of new customer registrations also decreased by 11.9% compared with the same period in April, and the market transaction activity has fallen to the bottom. As of May 30th, a total of 10,236 sets of second-hand houses were signed in Beijing in the month, and it is estimated that the number of second-hand houses signed in the whole month will be less than 11,000, which is the lowest value in the last 27 months.

　　In Guangzhou, the overall transaction volume of the property market in Guangzhou in May this year hit a new low in the past two years. As of May 29th, a total of 6,326 first-hand houses were sold in Guangzhou, which was the second lowest since May 2011, only higher than that in May 2014 (5,843).

　　Focus:The price increase in first-and second-tier cities has dropped.

　　The volume of transactions has fallen sharply. What is the trend of house prices?

　　According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, 30 cities saw their house price increase decline in April, 6 more than in March. According to preliminary estimates, the year-on-year increase in housing prices in first-tier cities fell for seven consecutive months, while the year-on-year increase in second-tier cities fell for five consecutive months. The data for May has not yet come out, but the situation is not expected to be better than that in April.

　　In terms of second-hand housing, the increase in house prices in most cities has dropped, and the price of second-hand housing in Beijing has stopped rising in April. And in May, according to a real estate agent statistics:

　　In May 2017, the average transaction price of second-hand houses in Beijing decreased by 2.4% compared with the same period in April.

　　Among the 12 regions with transactions, the average transaction price in 8 regions is falling, and the price in 4 regions is rising.

　　The biggest drop was in Tongzhou District and Yizhuang Development Zone, both of which exceeded 20%.

　　However, many Beijing buyers said that in terms of specific prices, there is still no obvious decline. In this regard, Li Wenjie, president of Beijing Real Estate Agency Association, said that the second-hand housing prices in Beijing have indeed dropped, but "down" means that compared with the high quotation of the owners listed this year, from the fourth quarter of last year to the end of the first quarter of this year, the second-hand housing prices are estimated to have increased by about 20%, so the current decline is still adjusted towards the level at the beginning of this year.

　　For example, in Tianjin, the news from the intermediary said that the price reduction of many communities ranged from 5% to 28%, with the highest drop of 28%. And from the current point of view, there is no sign of loosening the regulation of Tianjin property market.

　　In Shenzhen, since the introduction of a new round of control policies in Shenzhen last October, the transaction price of new commercial housing in Shenzhen has fallen for eight consecutive months. According to the data released by the Shenzhen Municipal Planning and Land Resources Committee on June 1, the average transaction price of new houses in Shenzhen in May was 54,512 yuan/square meter, down 0.2% from the previous month.

　　Trend:The property market is changing to a buyer’s market.

　　With a series of strict and strict regulation of the property market, the down payment and interest rate of loans for house purchase have both increased, and many buyers have suspended the pace of buying houses and are gradually turning from radicalism to wait and see, and the phenomenon of real estate speculation has been curbed. Experts said that at present, panic-grabbing houses, owner’s jumping prices and breaking contracts are basically gone, and the game relationship between buyers and sellers has gradually reversed and is changing to the buyer’s market.

　　According to industry insiders, in Beijing, the transaction volume of second-hand houses may be close to the bottom of the market. In terms of price, due to the excessive increase in the previous period, especially in some areas with double or multiple increases in the previous period, the decline may be further expanded.

　　Nationally, more than 30 cities, including Chengdu, Xiamen, Fuzhou, Qingdao, etc., have initiated the property market regulation policy of restricting the sale for a certain number of years after buying a house for the first time in history. It is widely predicted in the industry that with the continuation of regulatory policies, the overall housing prices in the country will be further adjusted back in the future. However, some insiders believe that the late trend of the property market still depends on the trend of credit interest rates and policy changes. If credit is loose, it does not rule out that house prices will continue to rise.

　　On December 25th, 2016, the 9th China Polar Bear International Winter Swimming Invitational Tournament was held in the frozen Ganhe River in Jiagedaqi District of Daxing ‘anling region. The picture shows the contestants jumping into the water. Xinhua News Agency reporter Wang Kaishe

　　"Cold winter" is the coldest season of the year. As the saying goes, "La Qi La Ba, frozen chin", the twelfth lunar month is in the cold winter. At this time, proper physical exercise and proper health care can not only relieve fatigue, but also make the body healthier.

　　Exercise in winter is essential.

　　Every winter, the winter swimming area of Nanhu Park in Changchun, Jilin Province is very lively, and there are often winter swimmers who are full of energy and swim in the "ice and snow".

　　Wu Zhaorui, an 88-year-old, has participated in winter swimming for more than 20 years. "Come every day, we don’t catch a cold, we don’t fear the cold, and we still swim in winter." Speaking of winter swimming, he seems very confident.

　　"Scientific winter swimming brings physical, life and spiritual benefits to winter swimmers, and the benefits of winter swimming have been recognized and accepted by more and more people." Mr. Ma, a winter swimmer in Hubei, talks about winter swimming with a clear head. "Winter swimming is very particular. To talk about science, every minute is the key. According to each person’s physical fitness, we should properly master the swimming volume."

　　In fact, besides winter swimming, there are many sports suitable for winter. According to health experts, aerobic exercise with smaller movement range and higher calorie consumption should be selected for winter exercise. Weibo, the official of People’s Daily, once counted nine sports suitable for winter, including skipping rope, jogging, climbing stairs, Tai Ji Chuan, alternating running, badminton, swimming, cycling and walking.

　　In addition, the passionate ice and snow sports have become the winter exercise items for more and more people. In recent years, ice and snow sports are heating up all over the country, and skating and skiing have become a winter carnival for many people.

　　Winter sports have many benefits.

　　There is a folk saying in China: "If you move in winter, you will have less illness;" Be lazy in winter and drink a bowl of medicine. " Proper participation in sports in winter is self-evident.

　　According to health experts, winter exercise can speed up the body’s metabolism. When the body is stimulated by cold, it will increase the antibodies against diseases in the blood, and the body’s resistance to diseases will also increase. Therefore, people who insist on exercising in winter are less likely to suffer from diseases such as colds, bronchitis and pneumonia.

　　There are many benefits of winter sports. For office workers, winter exercise can speed up blood circulation, increase the supply of oxygen to the brain and enhance the elasticity of blood vessels. This can eliminate the fatigue of the brain caused by long-term work and improve work efficiency; For the elderly, outdoor exercise in winter can fully enjoy the sunshine, promote the body’s absorption of calcium, and effectively prevent osteoporosis; For bodybuilders, when the warm body touches cold air or inhales cold air, the calories burned by exercise will increase slightly, so the effect of losing weight in winter exercise is better.

　　Of course, although there are many benefits of exercising in winter, we should pay attention to some problems. "In winter, the weather is cold. Generally speaking, it is best to exercise when the cold gradually fades after sunrise." Dr. Theway, from the Massage Department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, said, "We should pay attention to minimizing outdoor sports in foggy days."

　　Pay attention to health in winter

　　Chinese medicine pays attention to "spring life, long summer, autumn harvest and winter storage". "Winter is March, which is called hiding". Winter is the season when vitality lurks and everything stings and hides. Li Yanling, director of the Nutrition Department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, pointed out that the purpose of beginning of winter’s tonic is to preserve the yang of the human body, keep the body warm, nourish yin and subdue yang. Nursing should be combined with food supplement and medicine supplement, with warm supplement and flat supplement as appropriate. You can choose chicken, mutton, pears, chestnuts and other foods, and eat more foods containing inorganic salts such as potassium, sodium and calcium.

　　Pay more attention to hydration in winter health. Dr. Li from Changchun Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine said that the warm room in winter will be drier and people will lose more water. Being in such an environment for a long time, the body is naturally prone to dehydration. At the same time, Dr. Li pointed out that the most important thing in winter health care is to go to bed early. Adequate sleep should be ensured in winter health preservation, which is beneficial to the hidden yang and the accumulation of yin and body fluid.

　　Winter is a season suitable for "tonic", but "tonic" depends not only on eating, but also on moxibustion. Jin Xiaoqing, chief physician of acupuncture department of Zhejiang Hospital, said that when the cold current comes in winter, some people with weak body can play a role in cold resistance and health care through warm "winter moxibustion", that is, moxibustion.

　　Our reporter Wang Meng

　　China Securities Network News (Reporter Confucius Yuan) China Petrochemical announced that the company recently received a reply from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, agreeing to the company’s registration application for issuing shares to a specific target. The plan of this issuance is to issue A shares in full to China Petrochemical Group, the controlling shareholder of the company, at the average transaction price of the company’s A shares in the 20 trading days before the pricing benchmark date. All the funds raised in this issuance will be invested in the project construction in the fields of clean energy and high value-added materials.

Topic: picture channel

　　As a leading enterprise in China’s real estate industry, Wang Shi, chairman of Vanke Group, is still at the cusp of fierce controversy, and Pan Shiyi, president of SOHO China, recently declared that many real estate companies in China will have drastic changes within 100 days and enter an unprecedented financing difficult period.

　　Once the viewpoint of "Hundred Days Drama Change" was thrown out, it immediately aroused unprecedented repercussions. What kind of tomorrow will China real estate industry face? Will housing prices fall in the "drastic changes" predicted by Pan Shiyi? How many housing enterprises will "die" in this cold?

　　On March 25th, when Pan Shiyi attended the Sina Real Estate Innovation Summit, he accepted an exclusive interview with the reporter of China Times to explain in detail the "Hundred Days Drama Change" released by him.

　　The sudden change of the situation leads to "a hundred-day drama change"

　　China Times: Why do you put forward the view that the real estate industry will face a "hundred-day drama change" at this juncture?

　　Pan Shiyi: At the end of November last year, the central government put forward a tight monetary policy, but the formulation at that time was still relatively general, and the international situation was still unclear at that time, and China’s monetary policy still had operational flexibility.

　　But this year, especially since February, the CPI has increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the inflationary pressure is enormous. When answering a reporter’s question, Premier Wen Jiabao said that the first thing for the government this year is to control the CPI index to around 4.8% and GDP growth to 8%. To control inflation, we must implement a tight monetary policy.

　　The day after the Prime Minister made these remarks, the reserve ratio of the central bank was raised to 15.5%, which is already very high. At this time, the domestic situation has become clear, and the tight monetary policy is very clear.

　　Let’s take a look at the international environment. In the past two months, there have been some events and current situations, such as the Bear Stearns incident and the stock market crash, including the stock crash of overseas listed real estate companies, the failure of real estate enterprises to issue bonds and shares. There are more than 40 real estate enterprises that want to list this year.

　　However, led by Evergrande Real Estate, its IPO has been shelved. At this juncture, any IPO will go wrong. This is a landmark event, and the pipeline between the international capital market and China real estate is basically blocked.

　　China Times: Last year, you were still refuting Wang Shi’s "inflection point theory", and now you are proposing "a hundred-day drama change". Is it inconsistent?

　　Pan Shiyi: Up to now, my point of view has changed, because the situation changes every day, and I am constantly revising my point of view as the situation changes.

　　Last year, when I talked to Wang Shi about the inflection point, I listed the data to refute him. At that time, I didn’t expect the American economy to be so bad. I didn’t expect Bear Stearns to have an accident. I didn’t expect the subprime mortgage crisis to be endless. I didn’t expect the CPI index to rise to 8.7%.

　　Including the current point of view, I am not necessarily right. The real estate industry is 200 billion yuan a year. The domestic and international situation of such a big industry and market has changed too fast.

　　Diwang developers will be greatly adjusted.

　　China Times: Which real estate enterprises do you think will face the most severe challenges in this upcoming great change? Is it possible for small and medium-sized real estate enterprises in China to be integrated?

　　Pan Shiyi: The year before last, especially last year, many developers were irrational and bought many landlords. However, the real estate industry cannot do without the support of the financial industry and the capital market. If this support is disconnected or weakened, the real estate industry will face great adjustments. And the first to be adjusted are those real estate enterprises that expanded extremely last year and the year before, and they will face the biggest problem.

　　Some people say that I want to merge small and medium-sized enterprises, which is a wrong misinterpretation of my point of view. Some small and medium-sized real estate enterprises in China have not expanded, and the capital chain has been well arranged. When the winter comes, they will naturally not encounter problems. On the contrary, it is the developers who have expanded extremely in previous years who are most prone to problems.

　　China Times: Do you think that the real upheaval is those Diwang enterprises that emerged last year?

　　Pan Shiyi: It is an indisputable fact that the financial situation at home and abroad is tense, which leads to the lack of money in the real estate industry. But even for Diwang enterprises, every situation is different. There are pains, only you know.

　　Buying a house can resist inflation.

　　China Times: Do you think the house price will drop because of the "100-day drama change"?

　　Pan Shiyi: When it comes to "dramatic changes in a hundred days", this is a general concept, maybe two months, maybe four months. Speaking of this view, people are most concerned about the problem of housing prices, that is, the impact of drastic changes on housing prices-is it rising or falling? But we can’t look at the price for the sake of the price. Behind the price is the relationship between supply and demand.

　　We need to see if it has an impact on demand, and the control of mortgage loans will definitely have an impact on demand; Whether it has an impact on supply, if you have land, you can’t build a house without money, and supply also has an impact; Whether house prices are rising or falling depends on which is more affected, demand and supply, and whether the state of supply and demand can still be in a balanced state.

　　China Times: When developers encounter drastic changes, will they withdraw funds by reducing prices?

　　Pan Shiyi: Price reduction is not only a problem in the land market, but also a problem in the real estate market. From the perspective of the real estate market, in January and February this year, because of the turning point, the cold weather and weak demand, the transaction volume was falling, but from the end of February to March, the sales volume increased greatly, which proved that the demand was still strong.

　　Under this demand, developers will not reduce prices, but also see whether inflation can be controlled. If it can’t be controlled, I suggest that everyone should buy a house quickly. Only by buying a house can we resist inflation. This is a particularly simple truth. I think we should buy something valuable, and the house is the most valuable and valuable.

　　It will only develop in Beijing’s Third Ring Road.

　　China Times: How do you think real estate enterprises should cope with the coming challenges?

　　Pan Shiyi: For some enterprises that are short of money, when winter comes, they will either find a hole to drill down like frogs or fly away like migratory birds. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and China’s tight monetary policy are the signs of winter. At this time, we should adopt a strategy, transfer the land we have in hand, and exchange the projects in our hands for money to save our lives.

　　China Times: In this drastic change, will SOHO China use its 15 billion yuan to make a series of acquisitions?

　　Pan Shiyi: We still focus on acquiring land, not real estate companies. Because the management style and business model of other real estate companies are different from ours, it is difficult to integrate.

　　China Times: Where will your 15 billion cash be spent? Qianmen project?

　　Pan Shiyi: With the coming of winter, our cash of 15 billion yuan is not abundant, so we should do some projects with high profit rate, high return rate and good market foundation.

　　In November and December last year and January this year, we talked about some land projects in seven or eight cities across the country. In February, when winter came, we all withdrew to Beijing.

　　With 15 billion cash and 500 employees, according to our strategy, we should spend our limited resources on ideas. Where is the point? Just within the Third Ring Road in Beijing, Qianmen Project is one of them.

Editor: Zhang Toya

　　　　The latest issue of China News Network News? Wang Newsweek reported that the rising house prices in 2007 finally faltered towards the end of the year: Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai and other cities with soaring house prices began to see different degrees of decline in transaction volume, and the discussion about whether the house prices have turned an inflection point under a series of macro-control began to be lively.

　　　　The article writes that the real estate market in 2008 will face two major problems: First, since the housing system reform in 1998, the real estate market in China has experienced an upward trend for nearly ten years. Under the accumulation of years of regulatory policies, will 2008 be the turning point of adjustment?

　　　　Secondly, regarding how to solve the real estate problem in China, Premier Wen said in a speech in Singapore that under the premise of strictly observing the "red line" of 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land, three ways should be adopted to expand supply: low-rent housing, affordable housing and market regulation. Some media interpret this policy as "it is possible to free most urban residents from high housing prices". The Ministry of Construction, the competent department, has also said that in the next three years, the investment in low-rent housing and affordable housing will double. If so, it will completely change the current supply pattern of the real estate market.

　　　　According to the article, from a realistic point of view, it is far from enough to change the supply pattern of the real estate market in the near future in terms of affordable housing with the current investment quota accounting for less than 5% of the total investment in residential and commercial housing. It is a necessary condition to make clear the details of the actual operation of low-rent housing and affordable housing, such as the source of funds, supply methods and supply targets, to ensure that the limited funds of the country are used in the cutting edge. Therefore, Bao Zonghua, executive vice president of China Real Estate and Housing Research Association, believes that the construction and improvement of the housing system will be the theme in 2008.

　　　　Judging from the current situation in China, on the one hand, the national income level is not up to the level that most people can realize market-oriented housing purchase; On the other hand, it is impossible for the financial resources of the government to meet the desire of all housing difficulties groups to realize government security in a short period of time. Therefore, for the future housing system in China, experts believe that it will be composed of three parts, that is, some people will completely solve the housing problem by the government, some will solve it by market means, and the middle part will be combined with market and government subsidies, thus covering all the people in China’s housing system and security system.

　　　　Bao Zonghua pointed out that at present, it has reached a consensus that housing security is the responsibility of the government, and the key is how to do it. In his view, at this stage, we should focus on the middle, low and lowest income people and expand the coverage of low-rent housing, affordable housing and other affordable housing. At the same time, the government should strictly control its Taoxing, housing prices and supply targets.

　　　　First, vigorously develop low-rent housing. The proportion of low-rent housing in housing stock in the world generally does not exceed 5%. However, China’s current situation is far below this ratio, so in 2008, China will accelerate the pace of improving the low-rent housing system.

　　　　The second is to vigorously build affordable housing. Starting from 2008, the government should strive to increase the supply of low-priced and medium-sized ordinary commodity housing.

　　　　Third, high-grade housing adopts market regulation. The high-grade housing market will mainly rely on market regulation, but we must proceed from China’s national conditions of large population and small land and insufficient economic strength, vigorously curb the excessive expansion of housing investment demand, and rationally regulate the proportion of large-scale high-priced housing construction. Bao Zonghua suggested charging high land transfer fee, high real estate development tax and high property tax for the construction and purchase of large-sized high-priced housing in the future, and "increasing" tax on the sale and purchase of second homes. By collecting "high" property tax, it not only increases government revenue, but also inhibits investment demand, reduces the proportion of large-sized high-priced housing construction, and finally realizes the stability of housing prices.

Editor: Liu Li