Poly development
Low-margin projects reduce performance, and high-priced soil reserves are gradually released.
Matters:
On January 5, the company released the 2022 performance report, and it is estimated that the company will realize operating income of 281.1 billion yuan in 2022, which is-1.4% year-on-year; The net profit of returning to the mother was 18.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of -33.2%.
Guoxin Real Estate’s point of view: 1) Affected by the decline in gross profit margin and equity ratio of the project carry-over, the company achieved a net profit of 18.3 billion yuan in 2022, which was -33.2% year-on-year. This time, the company’s performance was fully released, and with the large number of follow-up high-quality projects carried forward, it is expected that the company’s performance level will be improved; 2) The company’s sales performance is better than the industry average, ranking second in the industry this year, and monthly sales continue to repair. With the economic recovery and the continuous relaxation of demand-side policies, it is expected that the company’s sales performance will still maintain a good trend in 2023; 3) The company actively responds to the policy and plans to raise no more than 12.5 billion yuan for the construction of 14 projects, which will effectively improve the debt structure and enhance the company’s ability to resist risks; 4) As the leader of central enterprises with stable operation, the company’s short-term performance will not change the company’s high-quality fundamentals. We are optimistic about the company’s long-term value and maintain the "buy" rating.
Guangzhou Automobile Group
In 22 years, the production and sales exceeded 2.43 million vehicles, and the performance of new energy was strong.
Event: The company released the December production and sales express. In December, the output was 200,000 units, down by 25.5% year-on-year and 6.1% month-on-month. The sales volume was 206,000 units, down by 11.8% year-on-year and up by 8.2% month-on-month. The reason for the year-on-year decline of the company’s production/sales in December was mainly due to the high base pressure in the previous period and the impact of the epidemic. Cumulatively, the company’s sales in 2022 reached 2,433,800 units, up 13.5% year-on-year.
In terms of brands, Guangfeng was under pressure in December, and the sales volume of Guangben/Guangcheng rebounded. In December, Guangfeng sold 74,000 units, down 24.7% year-on-year and 12.9% quarter-on-quarter, of which 17,000 units were sold by Ralink and 11,000 units by Fenglanda. Guangben sold 58,000 vehicles, down 25.5% year-on-year and up 24.6% quarter-on-quarter, of which Accord sold 25,000 vehicles per month. The sales volume of Guangchang was 38,000 units, up 18.1% year-on-year and 47.2% quarter-on-quarter.
In terms of electric vehicles, Ai ‘an’s monthly sales continued to lead. In December, the sales volume of Ai ‘an reached 30,000 units, up 106.9% year-on-year and 4.3% quarter-on-quarter. Among them, Ai ‘an S sold 13,800 units, accounting for 46.1%, and Ai ‘an Y sold 14,300 units, accounting for 47.7%. In 22 years, the cumulative sales volume of Ai ‘an exceeded 271,000 units, up 125.7% year-on-year. In the future, the sales trend of new energy vehicles is generally upward, but due to the price increase caused by the subsidy retreat in early 2003, the sales growth of Ai ‘an is expected to slow down in January.
Form an autonomous layout of battery electric drive, and continue to promote electric intelligence. The company established Guangzhou Automobile Ai ‘an Inpai Battery Technology Co., Ltd., and invested 10.9 billion yuan to carry out the industrialization of independent batteries; Ruipai Power Technology Co., Ltd. was established and invested 2.16 billion yuan to carry out independent research and development and industrialization construction of IDU electric drive system. In terms of intelligence, the company released the research and development achievements of the whole vehicle cross-domain standardized operating system Psay OS, the newly upgraded ADiGOSPACE intelligent cockpit system, and the ADiGOPILOT intelligent driving system based on the Spirit architecture, and the new SUV Binzhi of Guangben realized the intelligent upgrade, helping to realize intelligent travel in the whole scene. At present, GAC’s new energy business continues to grow steadily, and the degree of mixing of Chuanqi vehicles continues to increase. We believe that the company’s new energy vehicle sales are expected to continue to grow in 23 years with the gradual formation of the advantages of independent new energy industry chain and the intelligent development of products.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion. It is estimated that the EPS in 2022-2024 will be 1.02 yuan, 1.12 yuan and 1.31 yuan respectively, and the net profit returned to the mother will maintain a compound growth rate of 23% in the next three years, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: epidemic risk; Risk of chip shortage; The risk that the sales volume of independent and joint ventures is lower than expected; The risk that the price increase of raw materials exceeds expectations; Cost control is lower than expected risk.
BYD
Million-level look forward to the release, leading the brand up.
BYD’s "Looking Up" was officially launched, and the SUV looked up to U8 and pure electric supercar U9 were released.
On January 5th, () held the brand and technology conference of "Dare to Leap the Star River" in Shenzhen, officially released the brand-new high-end automobile brand "Look Up" and its core technology "Easy Sifang", and simultaneously released two models, namely, look up to the first million-class new energy hard-core off-road U8 and the million-class pure electric performance super-run: U8 will be the brand’s first mass-produced model, with a car length of over 5 meters and a car width of over 2 meters, giving consideration to excellent off-road. U9 is also equipped with an easy-to-square power system, with an acceleration of 2 seconds at zero speed, and adopts an electric intelligent butterfly door to create an extremely safe body structure. We maintain the company’s net profit forecast for 22-24 years at 113.9/212.3/30.62 billion yuan, and adopt the segment valuation method to give the company a target price of 348.40 yuan, thus maintaining the "buy" rating.
The brand-new "Easy Sifang" technology platform is equipped with all models as standard.
"Easy Sifang" technology is a set of power system with four independent wheel motors as the core, which reconstructs the characteristics of new energy vehicles from three dimensions: perception, decision-making and execution. This technology fully strengthens vehicle safety through a more perceptive electric drive system: after a single wheel has a flat tire, the driving wheel makes a powerful compensation intervention in time to help the vehicle brake stably and controllably; It has good tightness of the car body and cockpit, and can obtain emergency floating ability by virtue of four-wheel independent vector control function. In addition to safety, the highest rotation speed of the platform is 20500rpm, and the horsepower of the whole vehicle is over 1,100 horsepower. The fastest acceleration of 100 kilometers can achieve 2 seconds, and it can realize in-situ U-turn on high-adhesion roads such as asphalt roads. When the steering gear and brake are not working, the braking distance of 100 kilometers less than 40 meters and the agile steering ability of less than 12 meters can be realized.
Tengshi, look up to two high-end brands, and jointly promote the company’s brand.
In 2022, BYD made a great breakthrough in the mainstream market of new energy vehicles by virtue of the "two-wheel drive" strategy of E platform and DM-i platform, and became the global sales champion of new energy vehicles with annual sales of more than 1.86 million vehicles. The release of Tengshi and brand-new high-end brands fully demonstrates BYD’s cutting-edge technological advantages, which is expected to strengthen the company’s right to speak in luxury markets and high-end markets and enhance brand tonality. Since the beginning of 23 years, BYD’s product matrix of "Dynasty+Ocean+Tengshi+Looking Up" has been formally established, which will fully match the needs of various consumer levels and continue to strengthen brand influence.
Maintain the company’s "buy" rating
We maintain the company’s revenue and profit forecast for 22-24 years, and adopt the segment valuation method. Based on the 23-year revenue and net profit forecast, we give 1.91 times PS to the automobile business, 2.01 times PS to the rechargeable battery business, and 16.07 times PE to the electronic business, corresponding to a total market value of 1,014.196 billion yuan and a target price of 348.40 yuan (the previous value was 317.16 yuan), and maintain ".
Risk warning: the uncertainty of macro-environment throughout the year may affect income; In the future, the competition in the industry will intensify, and the order volume will be less than expected; The fluctuation of upstream materials leads to a sharp increase in costs.
