Create a sustainable growth path and move towards ecological win-win situation

In the fragmented and fast-paced current, there are many short-lived Internet celebrity products, but very few can exist for a long time. The same is true for the beverage track. Many brands are suddenly known to many consumers through a hot spot or out-of-circle marketing, but soon disappear and be replaced by the next "explosion". But in such a floating and sinking market, the big kiln continues to create value for consumers, channel providers, industries, etc., creating a long-term and stable growth internal driving force, so as to achieve sustainable development and set an example for the industry.

channel humanization

How to quickly build a brand in the market? How can products continue to penetrate into market segments? Channel management is an important part of it. Channel management is an important part of the company’s strategy and marketing strategy, and it is one of the long-term strategies of the brand. Dayao has always attached great importance to channel management and escorted the growth of agents.

In order to expand the market and enhance the popularity of brand products, Dayao has been expanding channels, up the ante catering, supermarkets, etc., to achieve online and offline all-round layout. Secondly, Dayao makes profits for channel providers and consumers, and provides 1V1 assistance to dealers. There is no general representative. According to different market layouts, sales policies are customized separately, so that dealers will not fall into a situation of going it alone. In addition to a professional "four-dimensional evaluation system", partners are evaluated from four dimensions: ability foundation, soft factors, industry status, and cooperation willingness, and a 3-month trial sales cooperation is carried out to reduce risks for dealers. After formal cooperation, it can also adapt faster, make profits faster, and continue to stimulate channel vitality.

Near and Far Strategy

Our country has a vast land area and a very broad market. If you want to make the brand go national, you must find the right method and expand it scientifically and reasonably.

From point to surface, break down one by one. The big kiln, which originated in the north, adopted the market strategy of "from near to far". After gaining a firm foothold in the northern market, it broke through the south of the Qinling Mountains and gradually realized the national layout through the eight self-built production bases, so that the production end is close to the consumer end, which is convenient for product supply and sales. In the process of planning cross-regional development of the big kiln, the number of distributors has increased, and distribution channels have been established all over the country. Store by store visits, promotions, and the strategy of wide distribution and excellent display have allowed the big kiln soda to go nationwide. At present, the big kiln soda has established more than one million retail end points, covering 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government, and has more than 2,000 distributors.

Quality core barrier

Of course, the sustainable development of enterprises cannot be separated from the most core quality adherence. Since its inception, the large kiln has adhered to the principle of quality first, and has carried out raw material procurement, production, and testing with strict standards, and finally delivered to consumers, continuously earning a good reputation.

In order to ensure the quality of products and meet consumer needs, Dayao controls the quality from the source of raw materials, continuously screens and optimizes, replaces high-quality upstream raw material suppliers, and conducts in-depth cooperation with domestic and even international first-line raw material brands. In terms of production, Dayao actively and decisively implements the implementation of the digital workshop and HACCP management system through the 6S GMP management system and Quality Standard in line with international standards to ensure food hygiene and safety and consumer health. In addition, Dayao Beverage also actively explores and implements the "0471" quality management strategy, builds a quality and safety control system from the production base to the finished product, strictly supervises the source, strictly supervises the whole process of product production, and strictly traceability of quality and safety, and is committed to building an excellent quality engine.

A good business model is that brands, distributors, and consumers all benefit, and it is through the need for value propositions to solve the problems of multiple links. Dayao allows channels to reap long-term benefits and consumers to gain outstanding experience. Dayao brand is also moving towards a national soda leading brand and a century-old brand, achieving an ecological win-win situation.

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On the 9 th, the organization pushed to buy 6 shares, which was extremely underestimated.

  Poly development

  Low-margin projects reduce performance, and high-priced soil reserves are gradually released.

  Matters:

  On January 5, the company released the 2022 performance report, and it is estimated that the company will realize operating income of 281.1 billion yuan in 2022, which is-1.4% year-on-year; The net profit of returning to the mother was 18.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of -33.2%.

  Guoxin Real Estate’s point of view: 1) Affected by the decline in gross profit margin and equity ratio of the project carry-over, the company achieved a net profit of 18.3 billion yuan in 2022, which was -33.2% year-on-year. This time, the company’s performance was fully released, and with the large number of follow-up high-quality projects carried forward, it is expected that the company’s performance level will be improved; 2) The company’s sales performance is better than the industry average, ranking second in the industry this year, and monthly sales continue to repair. With the economic recovery and the continuous relaxation of demand-side policies, it is expected that the company’s sales performance will still maintain a good trend in 2023; 3) The company actively responds to the policy and plans to raise no more than 12.5 billion yuan for the construction of 14 projects, which will effectively improve the debt structure and enhance the company’s ability to resist risks; 4) As the leader of central enterprises with stable operation, the company’s short-term performance will not change the company’s high-quality fundamentals. We are optimistic about the company’s long-term value and maintain the "buy" rating.

  Guangzhou Automobile Group

  In 22 years, the production and sales exceeded 2.43 million vehicles, and the performance of new energy was strong.

  Event: The company released the December production and sales express. In December, the output was 200,000 units, down by 25.5% year-on-year and 6.1% month-on-month. The sales volume was 206,000 units, down by 11.8% year-on-year and up by 8.2% month-on-month. The reason for the year-on-year decline of the company’s production/sales in December was mainly due to the high base pressure in the previous period and the impact of the epidemic. Cumulatively, the company’s sales in 2022 reached 2,433,800 units, up 13.5% year-on-year.

  In terms of brands, Guangfeng was under pressure in December, and the sales volume of Guangben/Guangcheng rebounded. In December, Guangfeng sold 74,000 units, down 24.7% year-on-year and 12.9% quarter-on-quarter, of which 17,000 units were sold by Ralink and 11,000 units by Fenglanda. Guangben sold 58,000 vehicles, down 25.5% year-on-year and up 24.6% quarter-on-quarter, of which Accord sold 25,000 vehicles per month. The sales volume of Guangchang was 38,000 units, up 18.1% year-on-year and 47.2% quarter-on-quarter.

  In terms of electric vehicles, Ai ‘an’s monthly sales continued to lead. In December, the sales volume of Ai ‘an reached 30,000 units, up 106.9% year-on-year and 4.3% quarter-on-quarter. Among them, Ai ‘an S sold 13,800 units, accounting for 46.1%, and Ai ‘an Y sold 14,300 units, accounting for 47.7%. In 22 years, the cumulative sales volume of Ai ‘an exceeded 271,000 units, up 125.7% year-on-year. In the future, the sales trend of new energy vehicles is generally upward, but due to the price increase caused by the subsidy retreat in early 2003, the sales growth of Ai ‘an is expected to slow down in January.

  Form an autonomous layout of battery electric drive, and continue to promote electric intelligence. The company established Guangzhou Automobile Ai ‘an Inpai Battery Technology Co., Ltd., and invested 10.9 billion yuan to carry out the industrialization of independent batteries; Ruipai Power Technology Co., Ltd. was established and invested 2.16 billion yuan to carry out independent research and development and industrialization construction of IDU electric drive system. In terms of intelligence, the company released the research and development achievements of the whole vehicle cross-domain standardized operating system Psay OS, the newly upgraded ADiGOSPACE intelligent cockpit system, and the ADiGOPILOT intelligent driving system based on the Spirit architecture, and the new SUV Binzhi of Guangben realized the intelligent upgrade, helping to realize intelligent travel in the whole scene. At present, GAC’s new energy business continues to grow steadily, and the degree of mixing of Chuanqi vehicles continues to increase. We believe that the company’s new energy vehicle sales are expected to continue to grow in 23 years with the gradual formation of the advantages of independent new energy industry chain and the intelligent development of products.

  Profit forecast and investment suggestion. It is estimated that the EPS in 2022-2024 will be 1.02 yuan, 1.12 yuan and 1.31 yuan respectively, and the net profit returned to the mother will maintain a compound growth rate of 23% in the next three years, maintaining a "buy" rating.

  Risk warning: epidemic risk; Risk of chip shortage; The risk that the sales volume of independent and joint ventures is lower than expected; The risk that the price increase of raw materials exceeds expectations; Cost control is lower than expected risk.

  BYD

  Million-level look forward to the release, leading the brand up.

  BYD’s "Looking Up" was officially launched, and the SUV looked up to U8 and pure electric supercar U9 were released.

  On January 5th, () held the brand and technology conference of "Dare to Leap the Star River" in Shenzhen, officially released the brand-new high-end automobile brand "Look Up" and its core technology "Easy Sifang", and simultaneously released two models, namely, look up to the first million-class new energy hard-core off-road U8 and the million-class pure electric performance super-run: U8 will be the brand’s first mass-produced model, with a car length of over 5 meters and a car width of over 2 meters, giving consideration to excellent off-road. U9 is also equipped with an easy-to-square power system, with an acceleration of 2 seconds at zero speed, and adopts an electric intelligent butterfly door to create an extremely safe body structure. We maintain the company’s net profit forecast for 22-24 years at 113.9/212.3/30.62 billion yuan, and adopt the segment valuation method to give the company a target price of 348.40 yuan, thus maintaining the "buy" rating.

  The brand-new "Easy Sifang" technology platform is equipped with all models as standard.

  "Easy Sifang" technology is a set of power system with four independent wheel motors as the core, which reconstructs the characteristics of new energy vehicles from three dimensions: perception, decision-making and execution. This technology fully strengthens vehicle safety through a more perceptive electric drive system: after a single wheel has a flat tire, the driving wheel makes a powerful compensation intervention in time to help the vehicle brake stably and controllably; It has good tightness of the car body and cockpit, and can obtain emergency floating ability by virtue of four-wheel independent vector control function. In addition to safety, the highest rotation speed of the platform is 20500rpm, and the horsepower of the whole vehicle is over 1,100 horsepower. The fastest acceleration of 100 kilometers can achieve 2 seconds, and it can realize in-situ U-turn on high-adhesion roads such as asphalt roads. When the steering gear and brake are not working, the braking distance of 100 kilometers less than 40 meters and the agile steering ability of less than 12 meters can be realized.

  Tengshi, look up to two high-end brands, and jointly promote the company’s brand.

  In 2022, BYD made a great breakthrough in the mainstream market of new energy vehicles by virtue of the "two-wheel drive" strategy of E platform and DM-i platform, and became the global sales champion of new energy vehicles with annual sales of more than 1.86 million vehicles. The release of Tengshi and brand-new high-end brands fully demonstrates BYD’s cutting-edge technological advantages, which is expected to strengthen the company’s right to speak in luxury markets and high-end markets and enhance brand tonality. Since the beginning of 23 years, BYD’s product matrix of "Dynasty+Ocean+Tengshi+Looking Up" has been formally established, which will fully match the needs of various consumer levels and continue to strengthen brand influence.

  Maintain the company’s "buy" rating

  We maintain the company’s revenue and profit forecast for 22-24 years, and adopt the segment valuation method. Based on the 23-year revenue and net profit forecast, we give 1.91 times PS to the automobile business, 2.01 times PS to the rechargeable battery business, and 16.07 times PE to the electronic business, corresponding to a total market value of 1,014.196 billion yuan and a target price of 348.40 yuan (the previous value was 317.16 yuan), and maintain ".

  Risk warning: the uncertainty of macro-environment throughout the year may affect income; In the future, the competition in the industry will intensify, and the order volume will be less than expected; The fluctuation of upstream materials leads to a sharp increase in costs.

The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China held a special press conference to interpret its report.

  Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, October 26 (Reporter Han Jie, Liu Yangyang) On October 26, Tuozhen, spokesman of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, held a special press conference at the press center of the conference, inviting Xiao Pei, deputy secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, Wang Xiaohui, executive deputy director of the Central Policy Research Office and vice minister of Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China, Lengrong, director of the Central Literature Research Office, Yuan Shuhong, party secretary and deputy director of the Legislative Affairs Office of the State Council, Yang Weimin, deputy director of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group, and Ji of the State-owned Assets Supervision

  十九大报告指出:“十八大以来的五年,是党和国家发展进程中极不平凡的五年。”袁曙宏说,“极不平凡”四个字,说出了全党8900多万党员、全国13亿多人民深刻的感悟、无限的感慨和无比的自豪。从国内来看,这五年是以习近平同志为核心的党中央举旗定向、力挽狂澜,淬火成钢、攻坚克难,砥砺奋进、成就辉煌的五年。在短短五年的时间里,我们党、国家和军队凤凰涅槃、浴火重生,比任何时候都更加强大、更有力量;从世界范围来看,这五年世界经济复苏乏力、局部冲突和动荡频发、全球性问题加剧,而中国则经济发展、政治稳定、社会安定、人民幸福、百业兴盛。正如报告所强调:“五年来的成就是全方位的、开创性的,五年来的变革是深层次的、根本性的。”五年来我们党之所以能推进历史性重大变革、取得历史性重大成就,最根本的就在于我们有以习近平同志为核心的党中央的坚强领导,有习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的科学指引,有习近平总书记作为我们党的核心、人民的领袖、军队的统帅。我们坚信,在以习近平同志为核心的党中央英明领导下,中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦一定能够实现。

  The report of the 19th National Congress pointed out: "After long-term efforts, Socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era, which is a new historical orientation for China’s development." Leng Rong said that this major political assertion is a highlight of the report and runs through the whole report. The new era started from the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China established the guiding ideology of the new era, put forward the historical mission of the Party in the new era, described the grand blueprint of the new era, made strategic arrangements for the new era, and made clear the new requirements for Party building in the new era. Socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era, and the main social contradictions in our country have also changed, "which has been transformed into the contradiction between the people’s growing needs for a better life and the unbalanced development". This major assertion has sufficient basis. From "material and cultural needs" to "needs for a better life", from solving the problem of "backward social production" to solving the problem of "unbalanced and insufficient development", it reflects the great progress of China’s social development, the phased requirements of development, and the key requirements of the development of the party and the state. Economic construction is still the central task, but in the new era, we should pay more attention to all-round development. The change of the principal contradiction in our society has not changed our judgment on the basic national condition that China is still in the primary stage of socialism.

  十九大报告和十九大通过的党章修正案,把习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想确立为党的行动指南。王晓晖认为,这是十九大的突出亮点和重大历史贡献。中国特色社会主义进入新时代,是我国发展新的历史方位,也是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想产生的时代背景。习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想,创造性地回答了实践和时代提出的重要课题。坚持和发展中国特色社会主义,是改革开放以来我们党全部理论和实践探索的主题,也是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的主题。十九大报告提出的“八个明确”和“十四个坚持”,构成了习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的主要内容。习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想,是党和人民实践经验和集体智慧的结晶,但它的主要创立者是习近平同志。用他的名字命名这一科学理论名副其实、当之无愧,这也体现了我们党理论上的成熟和自信。习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想,开辟了马克思主义新境界,开辟了中国特色社会主义新境界,开辟了治国理政新境界,开辟了管党治党新境界。

  The 19th National Congress to the 20th National Congress is the historical intersection of the goal of "two hundred years". Yang Weimin said that the 19th National Congress made clear the key points for building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way. In the next three years, we will build a well-off society in an all-round way, especially the "three major battles" to prevent and resolve major risks, accurately get rid of poverty and prevent pollution. This is the bottom line for building a well-off society in an all-round way. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China also clarified the comprehensive construction of a socialist modern country and its "two-step" strategic arrangement. After 2020, the practical theme of Socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era will shift to building a socialist modern country in an all-round way, and the first of the "four comprehensiveness" will become building a socialist modern country in an all-round way, maintaining the continuity of the strategic layout of the "four comprehensiveness". At the same time, the strategic arrangement of "two steps" for building a socialist modernized country in an all-round way was made clear, and the timetable and road map of China’s socialist modernization were completely outlined, which advanced the goal of basically realizing socialist modernization by 15 years and made the expression of the second century goal more complete. The goal of doubling GDP is no longer mentioned in order to better implement the new development concept and promote the all-round development of the cause of the party and the state.

  谈到新时代党的建设,江金权说,十九大报告一个重大贡献,就是根据新时代新要求,深化对党的建设规律性认识,提出了新时代党的建设总要求:原则是坚持和加强党的全面领导;方针是坚持党要管党、全面从严治党;主线是加强党的长期执政能力建设、先进性和纯洁性建设;布局是以党的政治建设为统领,全面推进党的政治建设、思想建设、组织建设、作风建设、纪律建设,把制度建设贯穿其中,深入推进反腐败斗争;要求是提高党建工作质量;目标是把党建设成为始终走在时代前列、人民衷心拥护、勇于自我革命、经得起各种风浪考验、朝气蓬勃的马克思主义执政党。这为新时代党的建设提供了一个立体“坐标系”和精准“定位仪”。报告第一次把党的政治建设纳入党的建设总体布局,强调以党的政治建设为统领。这是马克思主义党建理论的重大创新。报告还着眼于推动全面从严治党向纵深发展,确定了把党的政治建设摆在首位、用习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想武装全党、建设高素质专业化干部队伍、加强基层组织建设、持之以恒正风肃纪、夺取反腐败斗争压倒性胜利、健全党和国家监督体系、全面增强执政本领等八项重点工作。

  关于全面从严治党,肖培说,十九大报告3.2万字,这部分内容就占了4100字,是报告的八分之一多,可见分量之重。这部分1个序言、8项任务,条条都是我们党对人民的庄严承诺,句句都是全面从严治党的坚定宣示。推动全面从严治党向纵深发展,一是紧紧围绕维护以习近平同志为核心的党中央权威和集中统一领导,加强党的政治建设;二是把中央八项规定精神化作自觉行动,驰而不息抓好作风建设;三是全面加强纪律建设,持之以恒正风肃纪;四是以坚如磐石的决心,夺取反腐败斗争压倒性胜利;五是完善党和国家监督体系,不断增强自我净化能力。全面从严治党的根本目的,就是探索出一条党长期执政条件下实现自我净化的有效途径。此外,要落实十九大决策部署,将国家监察体制改革试点在全国推开,实现巡视监督、派驻监督、国家监察三个全覆盖,进一步完善党和国家监督体系,推进治理体系和治理能力现代化。

  有关方面负责人还回答了中外记者的提问。350多名中外记者参加了新闻发布会。

Guangshui: Enjoy the game and grow into outdoor sports game training activities in Wushengguan Town Central Kindergarten.

  This training activity provides the participating teachers with an educational model that can be used for reference on how to organize outdoor sports games for children more effectively, and plays a positive role in scientifically and reasonably arranging and organizing sports games in kindergartens and standardizing all aspects of sports games in kindergartens. Teachers have said that they will create more and more fun sports games with children in the future, and truly practice the educational concept of "playing by learning" and "playing by learning".

Strive to be small farmers and grow potatoes together. The natural labor practice activities of primary and middle school students in Wuhan started

Hubei Daily News (reporter Li Xianhong, correspondent Zhang Wei, Wang Lu and Lu Wei) strives to be small farmers and grow potatoes together. On March 8th, Wuhan Agriculture and Rural Bureau sent 1000 Jin of virus-free potato seeds to Wuhan Foreign Language School, and officially launched the natural labor practice activities for primary and middle school students in 2024. On the same day, students planted potatoes in the school labor practice base under the leadership of agricultural experts, spreading the hope of spring.

Zhu Hua, an agricultural expert and senior agronomist, told the children the story of potato introduced to China, demonstrated the growth pictures of potatoes in different periods, explained the skills of potato planting and maintenance, and led the children to dig, dig pits, plant seedlings and water … The students carefully planted potato seedlings in the soil, and they will grow under the careful care of the children.

According to the relevant person in charge of Wuhan Foreign Language School, since 2021, the school has carried out a series of labor ecological education courses with the theme of "practicing labor education and creating an ecological campus" to let children experience labor and gain happiness.

According to reports, Wuhan Education Bureau and Wuhan Agriculture and Rural Bureau organized 20 pilot schools, including Wuhan Foreign Language School, Wuhan Qiyi Huayuan Middle School, Jianghan District Wansongyuan Primary School, Wuhan No.4 Junior High School, Wuhan Erqiao Middle School, Hubei Wuchang Experimental Primary School and Optics Valley No.15 Primary School, to carry out labor practice activities of planting potatoes. Next, Wuhan will expand the labor practice of planting common crops to 100 pilot schools in the city. The education department will also work with the agricultural department to build a number of off-campus bases for natural labor practice. Through these activities, children can learn about "five grains" and practice "four bodies", cultivate patience and perseverance, learn to cooperate with others, and improve teamwork ability.

Wuhan Agriculture and Rural Bureau will give full play to the advantages of Academician Deng Zixin’s popular science studio team, agricultural technology experts and professional growers, and jointly promote a series of natural labor practice activities for primary and secondary school students with the education department, and guide primary and secondary school students to work and love labor through practical projects such as crop planting, maintenance, processing, picking, cooking, handicrafts and intangible skills.

Zhu Hua said: "Nature is the best teacher. Every child can release his nature here and know the natural laws of spring, summer, autumn harvest and winter storage through labor. The agricultural and rural departments are willing to care for the growth of children like watering crops."

Six questions about snowfall forecast! What is the difficulty in judging whether it is raining or snowing?

On January 20, during the cold season, Beijing and other places ushered in the first snowfall in 2022! As the first round of large-scale rain and snow in the New Year, there are small to medium snow or sleet in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Northwest China, North China, Huanghuai and western Hubei, and there are heavy snow and local snowstorms in eastern Shaanxi, southwestern Shanxi, southern Hebei, Henan, western Shandong and southern Tibet. On the other hand, there is rainfall in many places in the south.
However, compared with rainfall forecast, snowfall forecast is much more complicated! People want to know,Also affected by a strong cold air, is it rain or snow?Can the depth of newly added snow be predicted? What is the difficulty of snowfall forecast? Therefore, China Meteorological News reporter interviewed meteorologists to find out!
01
What’s the difference between forecasting snowfall and forecasting rainfall?
First of all, it needs to be clear that rain and snow are different phases of water, so in meteorology,Snowfall forecast and rainfall forecast can be collectively called precipitation forecast.
We know that no matter whether it rains or snows, we need to meet the basic conditions for precipitation, and most of the snowfall occurs in the precipitation weather under the winter climate background.
Similarities:Meteorological factors such as large-scale circulation background, water vapor conditions and dynamic conditions that need to be paid attention to in rainfall forecasting are also important in snowfall forecasting. At this point, the forecasting methods and techniques of the two are also consistent.
Differences:Winter precipitation is often accompanied by the phase transformation process of rain and snow. Accurate phase prediction is the basis of snowfall and snow depth prediction, which are not available in rainfall prediction.
When we pull the angle of view to the vertical altitude of several kilometers, we can find that the temperature at different heights of the atmosphere is not evenly distributed, and the morphology of precipitation particles has various changes at different heights and in different temperature and humidity States.The precipitation phase will also undergo a very complicated transformation.
Schematic diagram of atmospheric temperature changing with height. Snowfall only occurs in the troposphere.
When ice crystals or snowflakes fall down in the clouds, it’s like an unknown adventure.
Only when the whole floor is cold (for example, below 0℃) will snow fall to the ground. If the temperature of the whole layer is higher than 0℃, it will turn into rain.In fact, the temperature change between layers of atmosphere is often more complicated than imagined:
Case 1: If the temperature in the upper and lower floors is lower than 0℃, but there is a shallow warm layer in the middle, and the snow in the upper floors melts in the middle warm layer and then freezes in the middle and lower cold layers, then it is ice particles.
Case 2: If the warm layer in the middle is thick, it will rain if the snowflakes in the upper layer are too late to freeze after melting in the warm layer in the middle.
Situation 3: If the ground temperature is high or the water content of snowflakes is high, sometimes snow falls, and it is difficult to form obvious snow on the ground, but it is wet.
In reality, the real vertical atmospheric temperature, influenced by the atmospheric circulation system and complex dynamic environmental conditions, is not so simple stratification, and the surface temperature near the ground is different, which makesWhen and in what form will the "naughty child" of precipitation enter the public’s sight? Need a complex comprehensive judgment.
The national precipitation forecast map released by the Central Meteorological Observatory at 6 o’clock on January 20, 2022.
02
What is the difficulty in judging whether it is raining or snowing?
Rain, sleet, snow, freezing rain, ice particles, snow, snow, etc …There are many forms of precipitation in winter, and the transition between phases has a very complicated mechanism. The core is the vertical change of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere.
Snow-covered landscape
At first glance, there are four necessary conditions for the formation of snowfall: low temperature, water vapor saturation, upward movement and condensation nuclei in the air. To integrate these four factors, it is also necessary that the ascending motion must be extended to the temperature layer conducive to the development of ice crystals, which is usually at least -10℃.
Carefully, the vertical distribution of temperature and humidity in the atmosphere is very complicated, including the height from -10℃ to 0℃, the thickness difference between related temperature layers, the temperature from the ground to the condensation height of water vapor, the height of cloud bottom, and the path, intensity and moving speed of cold air, as well as the underlying surface conditions such as topography.The key factors affecting the phase transition of precipitation are mutually restricted and have a non-fixed relationship with the formation of rain and snow phases.
In short, it is a scientific and technological problem to predict when and where it will rain or snow, which needs the support of three-dimensional meteorological comprehensive observation data, corresponding numerical forecasting model and objective forecasting method.
The hourly rain and snow situation in China reflects the evolution of precipitation.
At present, the prediction of ground precipitation phase model is mainly obtained by the vertical distribution of water content in the cloud combined with the vertical profile diagnosis of ambient temperature, and the subjective phase prediction is also mainly based on the temperature threshold at key levels. However, the actual precipitation phase is related to the complex cloud microphysical process, and the phase distribution described by the temperature profile model or threshold is still quite different from the phase characteristics in the actual cloud.
Therefore, phase prediction has always been a difficult point in winter precipitation prediction, and it is a long way to go to clearly explain the complex mechanism behind this change.
03
Is it easy to predict the depth of snow?
How high can 1 mm snowfall accumulate? This is closely related to ice crystal structure, temperature layer and humidity layer structure, vertical movement of atmosphere, surface temperature and snow moisture content.
According to statistics,The ratio of snow depth to snowfall in winter in China is about 0.75 cm/mm,It means that for every 1 mm of snowfall, about 0.75 cm of snow is formed.
However, this ratio tends to decrease obviously with the increase of temperature, and there are significant regional differences.For example, the snowfall caused by the same cold wave, due to the influence of surface temperature, wind and other conditions, the amount of snow in the south is often not as much as that in the north, and the amount of snow in cities is not as much as that in mountainous areas. thereforeSnow forecast not only needs to pay attention to the "stories" in the atmosphere, but also to the complex situation on the ground, and the difficulty of forecast is increasing.
It can be said that snow depth prediction is an international problem.
At present, global models such as EC (european centre for medium-range weather forecasts) and NCEP (National Center for Environmental Forecasting) all provide snow forecast products, but they are all instructive and have some differences with business requirements.
The staff of the observation field of Tongliao Meteorological Bureau in Inner Mongolia carried out intensive snow depth observation
In recent years, China has also carried out a lot of work in snow depth forecasting, and gradually promoted the snow depth forecasting business. However, due to the limitation of observation data in winter for a long time, forecasters have insufficient understanding of the characteristics, influencing factors and forecasting techniques of snow depth during snowfall, which makesSnow depth prediction is still a difficult problem.
04
What factors will lead to blizzard?
The formation of blizzard needs abundant water vapor, strong lifting power, cold enough temperature and suitable temperature layer structure. In addition, the above conditions need to last for a certain period of time to form a blizzard.
For example, a nationwide cold wave that started on the evening of November 20, 2021 brought snowstorms and heavy snowstorms to Northeast China.
The cold air of this cold wave comes from Siberia, and in the process of moving eastward and southward, on the one hand, it meets the warm and humid air in the southern region to form precipitation; On the other hand, warm and humid air currents from the northeast and the sea surface form extratropical cyclones. The cyclone not only continuously transports warm and humid air to the north, but also provides lifting power for the convergence of cold and warm air. As a result, cold and warm air meet in the northeast where the temperate cyclone front is located, forming a blizzard.
True color monitoring map of FY-4A meteorological satellite
05
What meteorological products can the general public refer to to predict the approaching snowfall?
Weather radar can see the information of precipitation, but compared with summer, the precipitation in winter is less in magnitude, so even if it is a blizzard (precipitation is more than 10 mm), strong radar echoes such as "tomato scrambled eggs" are rarely seen on the radar map. Therefore, to understand the snowfall process, it is best to pay attention to the latest weather information released by the meteorological department.
06
What is the current snowfall forecasting ability in China?
What other shortcomings are there?
Quantitative precipitation forecast is the most traditional and core forecast business of the Central Meteorological Observatory.At present, the Central Meteorological Observatory has produced and released a gridded quantitative precipitation forecast product with a spatial resolution of 5km, with an interval of 1 hour in the next 3 days and an interval of 3 hours in the next 10 days.
In the aspect of precipitation phase prediction, it has been upgraded from rain and snow prediction to rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow prediction. For the snowfall forecast, there are not only the snowfall forecast but also the snow depth, including the new snow depth forecast.
Today, the short board of snowfall forecast still exists.Li Zechun, an academician of China Academy of Engineering, once put forward four points around the difficult breakthrough of snowfall forecast:
First of all, improve the ability of extending short-term and medium-term forecasting and short-term climate forecasting, and improve the prediction level of cumulative effects of continuous snowfall.
Secondly, by building automatic weather stations, carrying out intensive observation and other measures, the fine degree of snowstorm forecast will be improved.
Third, strengthen the grasp and research on the mechanism of precipitation phase change.
Fourthly, make full use of microwave radiometer, temperature profiler, wind profiler, dual polarization radar and laser raindrop spectrometer to monitor and physically analyze the local atmospheric structure and changes.
The meteorological departments have already carried out research on the mechanism of occurrence and development of snowstorms in the north, and constantly encouraged meteorological departments at all levels to carry out research on snowfall forecasting techniques and methods suitable for local conditions.
up to this day
With that improvement of numerical forecast model
Improvement of forecasting technical ability
Aiming at the influence of rain and snow freezing disaster
Risk assessment and decision-making service
But also play a greater role in emergency response.
(Source: China Meteorological Bureau)
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